European Power and Carbon: EUA, Day-Ahead Prices — 2026-10-23
European carbon prices are projected to surge toward €100 per tonne this winter due to an Iran war-driven energy shock and potential coal resurgence. Meanwhile, day-ahead power markets show extreme volatility, with German prices dropping sharply on wind forecasts while French spot prices remain elevated above €200/MWh.
European Power and Carbon: EUA, Day-Ahead Prices — 2026-10-23
Top developments
BofA Forecasts EU Carbon Price Surge to €100/t
Bank of America Global Research predicts that European carbon prices (EUA) could rise to €100 (approximately USD 112.12) per metric tonne this winter. This forecast is driven by high natural gas prices linked to the ongoing Iran war, which encourages power generators to increase coal use, thereby pushing up emissions and demand for allowances.
German Day-Ahead Prices Plunge on Wind Surge
The German day-ahead baseload power contract fell by 41% on Thursday due to a significant expected increase in wind electricity generation. LSEG data indicated that wind generation was forecast to rise by 10.4 GW to a total of 39 GW, exerting substantial downward pressure on spot prices.
French Day-Ahead Prices Remain Elevated
French day-ahead electricity prices averaged €222/MWh on October 19, marking an October peak, with hourly prices ranging from a low of €183/MWh at 3 AM to a high of €280/MWh at 7 PM. By October 22, the average daily price settled at €156/MWh, with a midday trough of €90/MWh and an evening peak of €271/MWh.
Polish Energy Prices Hit Annual Record
Average electricity prices on the Polish SPOT market reached their highest point of the year in September, averaging €151.89/MWh. Gas and coal costs are cited as primary drivers pushing the market upward, with spot prices reflecting intense pressure from fuel costs.
Local view
Germany: MarketScreener reports that the anticipated surge in wind power generation to 39 GW was the decisive factor in the 41% drop in German day-ahead baseload contracts.
France: Selectra highlights the volatility in French markets, noting that despite a midday dip to €90/MWh on October 22, evening peaks remained high at €271/MWh, contrasting with the previous day's average of €156/MWh.
Poland: Bankier.pl notes that CO2 emission allowance prices rose slightly in September according to KOBiZE reports, placing continued pressure on the energy sector for settlement purposes.
Context & numbers
- EU Carbon (EUA): Forecasted to reach €100/t in winter 2026/27 by BofA; September prices showed a slight increase per KOBiZE.
- German Power: Day-ahead baseload fell 41% on a specific Thursday due to wind forecasts; wind generation expected to hit 39 GW.
- French Power: Average day-ahead price of €222/MWh on Oct 19; €156/MWh on Oct 22. Hourly peaks consistently exceed €270/MWh in the evening.
- Polish Power: September SPOT average of €151.89/MWh, the highest of the year.
On the radar
- Winter Coal Demand: Analysts are watching for signs of increased coal usage in Europe as gas prices remain elevated due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which directly correlates with EUA demand.
- Wind Volatility: The sharp correlation between wind generation forecasts (specifically the 10.4 GW jump in Germany) and price crashes suggests continued high volatility in day-ahead markets for the coming weeks.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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