European Power and Carbon: EUA, Day-Ahead Prices — 2026-10-24

Top developments

BofA predicts EUA prices could hit €100 this winter

Bank of America analysts forecast that European carbon prices (EUA) could reach €100 per tonne this winter, driven by rising gas costs linked to the Iran war and a subsequent increase in coal usage for power generation. This projection marks a significant escalation from current levels, suggesting that the gas-power link will intensify pressure on industrial energy costs before prices potentially ease below €80 in 2027.

French day-ahead prices swing from near-zero to €271/MWh

French day-ahead electricity prices demonstrated extreme intraday volatility this week, with Selectra data showing prices dropping to €90/MWh at midday on October 22 before spiking to €271/MWh in the evening. By October 23, prices fell to a low of €0.82/MWh at 4:00 AM, averaging €73/MWh for the day, highlighting the increasing impact of renewable generation profiles on wholesale market stability.

German day-ahead prices drop 41% on wind surge

German day-ahead baseload power prices fell by 41% on Thursday following a forecasted increase in wind generation of 10.4 GW, bringing total wind output to 39 GW. This sharp correction illustrates the sensitivity of the German power market to weather-driven renewable supply, which can rapidly depress spot prices even during periods of high overall demand.

Poland records highest spot energy prices of the year

Polish spot energy prices reached their highest levels of 2026, with an average of €151.89/MWh in September, driven by elevated gas and coal costs. This regional disparity underscores the continued divergence in European power markets, where coal-dependent nations face higher marginal costs compared to those with greater nuclear or renewable shares.

Local view

In France, the debate over nuclear financing is reshaping long-term price expectations. Boursorama reports that the French government has proposed a "contract for difference" mechanism to the EU to finance the six future EPR2 reactors. This financial instrument aims to redistribute risks and secure stable electricity prices for new nuclear capacity, moving beyond simple price guarantees to a more complex risk-sharing model with the state.

Polish media highlights the pressure on the energy sector from rising carbon allowances. Bankier.pl notes that CO2 emission permit prices saw a slight increase in September, keeping the energy sector under pressure from settlement obligations. Meanwhile, WNP.pl reports that EEX auctions sold approximately 48.32 million EUA allowances in September at a weighted average clearing price, generating nearly €0.5 billion in revenue across three auction series, indicating robust demand despite high prices.

Context & numbers

The EU ETS market remains tight, with European carbon prices having risen to €88 per tonne in October, influenced by both energy prices and political factors. In Poland, the average electricity price for corporate groups reached 479.42 zł/MWh in the third quarter of 2026, a 6.7% increase from the previous quarter.

Recent market data from Prestige Business Solutions indicates that German, French, and Dutch day-ahead baseload prices settled at €160.23, €169.44, and €164.05/MWh respectively in mid-October, reflecting a period of high costs before the recent wind-driven corrections in Germany.

On the radar

• Winter Power Premiums: European winter electricity contracts are trading at a premium of over 20% to next year's benchmark, the highest since the 2022 energy crisis, due to low gas stocks and shrinking hydropower reserves.
• EU ETS Political Pressure: EU leaders continue to debate temporary relief mechanisms for the EU ETS, with Italy and Czechia pushing for adjustments to carbon costs, a topic that remains central to the ongoing political dialogue.