European Power and Carbon: EUA, Day-Ahead Prices — 2026-09-28
Europe's power markets are once again under pressure as low wind output pushes UK day-ahead prices to their highest since January 2025, while Polish forward contracts exceed 700 zł/MWh for the coming winter. French wholesale prices swung dramatically this week, from near-zero midday lows to evening scarcity spikes. Meanwhile, EUA carbon fundamentals remain tight, with the Polish state environmental institute publishing its September CO2 market report and Polish coal stocks down sharply ahead of the heating season.
European Power and Carbon: EUA, Day-Ahead Prices — 2026-09-28
Top developments
UK day-ahead hits highest since January 2025 as wind fades
UK day-ahead power prices climbed to their highest level since January 2025 as wind generation forecasts dropped, forcing greater reliance on expensive fossil-fuel plants. The low-wind episode短线 tightens the UK ETS UKA price outlook and underscores how wind variability — a problem for the UK — transmits into continental evening scarcity pricing as well
France: near-zero midday, €237/MWh evening — the duck curve bites
On Saturday 26 September, French wholesale prices plunged to €3.79/MWh at 13:00 before spiking to €237/MWh at 19:00 — a gap of over €233 within six hours. The swing illustrates how midday solar depresses prices (feeding possible curtailment/negative-price episodes) while evening ramp scarcity is becoming routine, a dynamic that constrains baseload gas-fired margins and rewards flexible capacity
France records negative wholesale prices but households keep paying more
French media this week highlighted the paradox that France produced electricity at "negative" wholesale prices during 2026, even as household bills continue to rise. The disconnect between wholesale volatility (negative prices for renewables-heavy hours) and rising retail costs matters for the political debate around network charges and tariff pass-through
Polish winter forward tops 700 zł/MWh — highest in years
Polish energy forwards entered levels unseen in years: the Q4 2026 contract exceeded 700 zł/MWh, with month-ahead delivery prices up 76 zł/MWh to nearly 500 zł/MWh — the highest since 2023. Costs are being driven by high gas and coal prices and rising carbon costs, with retail bills expected to rise by up to 800 zł/year in an election year
EU winter arithmetic: diesel and chokepoints, not a 2022 rerun
A 28 September analysis argues Europe's 2026 winter energy shock runs through oil, diesel and two chokepoints rather than a repeat of the 2022 gas crisis, with Brussels reusing its 2022 gas playbook. The gas-power linkage nonetheless remains tight, implying continued carbon-intensive coal dispatch and firm support for EUA demand rhetoric
Local view
- Poland: bezprawnik.pl reports coal stocks at domestic producers are down 44% and private-silo coal prices in September have exceeded 2,000 zł/tonne, some offers reaching 2,500 zł — raising the spectre of a difficult winter 2026/2027 for coal-fired power economics
- Poland: The Instytut Ochrony Środowiska (Państwowy Instytut Badawczy) published its September 2026 "Raport z rynku CO2," covering market conditions affecting the EU ETS system — a key local reference for Polish emitters tracking EUA dynamics
- Germany: agrarheute.com reports household electricity tariffs for new customers rose ~6 cents to the highest since May 2023 — more than three years, reflecting pass-through of elevated wholesale and carbon costs
Context & numbers
- EUA benchmark: rose to its highest since January in mid-September as high gas prices made coal burning attractive, per Bloomberg via Polish business press; tracking data had EUA around €82.50/t as of late August before this move
- French day-ahead 26 Sept: €3.79/MWh (13:00) vs €237/MWh (19:00)
- Poland Q4 2026 power: >700 zł/MWh; month-ahead ~500 zł/MWh
- Poland coal: private-silo prices >2,000 zł/t, producer stocks −44% y/y
On the radar
- WindEurope's "Latest wind energy data for Europe: Autumn 2026" release after 21 September — wind deployment data (H1 2026: 8.8 GW in Europe, 7.1 GW in EU-27) informs renewables-driven price compression forecasts
- Daily EUA auction results on EEX and ICE EUA futures settlements — with coal-firing economics elevated, watch for the December contract holding near recent January-period highs
- Low-wind episodes across the UK and continental North Sea: further Dunkelflaute risk into winter could sustain evening scarcity spikes in Germany, France and the Nordics
- Polish household retail tariff decisions ahead of winter amid record TGE wholesale levels — flagged by farmer.pl as pressure point for URE decisions
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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