European Power and Carbon: EUA, Day-Ahead Prices — 2026-09-12
European wholesale power prices have spiked due to a sharp drop in German wind generation and French nuclear outages, pushing day-ahead rates to multi-year highs. In Poland, electricity futures hit their highest levels since 2023 amid gas supply concerns, while EU carbon prices remain resilient above €80/t despite weak speculative demand.
European Power and Carbon: EUA, Day-Ahead Prices — 2026-09-12
Top developments
German Day-Ahead Prices Surge as Wind Output Collapses
Germany’s day-ahead power prices soared this week as wind generation fell to approximately 3.5 GW, forcing utilities to rely on more expensive gas-fired generation. This supply tightness lifted electricity costs not only in Germany but also across neighboring markets like the UK and France, highlighting the interconnectedness of European grid balances during low-renewable periods. The event underscores the volatility introduced by variable renewable energy sources and the critical role of thermal backup in maintaining grid stability.
French Wholesale Prices Hit 3-Year High Amid Nuclear Outages
French wholesale electricity prices climbed to €130.74/MWh, the highest level in nearly three years, driven by a combination of heatwaves, drought conditions affecting cooling water availability, and scheduled outages at EDF nuclear reactors. This price spike contrasts sharply with earlier in the month when strong winds in Germany had pushed prices down, illustrating how regional weather patterns and maintenance schedules can decouple price trajectories between major European markets.
Polish Electricity Futures Reach Highest Levels Since 2023
In Poland, electricity futures for delivery next year rose by 76 PLN/MWh in just one month to approach 500 PLN/MWh, marking the highest level since 2023. The surge is attributed to rising natural gas prices and fears of supply disruptions, with analysts warning that these wholesale increases could lead to significant hikes in household bills in the coming year. Retail prices are expected to rise by at least 200 PLN annually for average households, potentially reaching 800 PLN for higher consumers.
EU Carbon Prices Hold Above €80/t Despite Weak Speculation
EU Emission Allowance (EUA) prices have remained stable above €80 per tonne throughout August and September, supported by structural supply tightness under the EU ETS cap-and-trade system. Although speculative demand has been weak, the floor price remains robust as industrial compliance costs keep a firm bid under the market. Recent data from Epignosis Insights indicated that EUA prices had eased slightly to around €82.50/t in late August after hitting six-month highs, suggesting a consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal.
Local view
Germany: Local media reports highlight the immediate impact of "Dunkelflaute" (dark doldrums) on consumer costs, with evening spot prices reaching up to 58.51 cents/kWh on September 10. Analysts note that while dynamic tariffs expose consumers directly to these spikes, fixed-price contracts have temporarily shielded households, though renewal risks are rising.
Poland: Polish economic outlets are warning of a "cost spiral" for agriculture and households, linking the high TGE (Polish Power Exchange) prices to geopolitical tensions affecting gas supplies. Farmer.pl reports that the average day-ahead market price in August reached 583.66 PLN/MWh, creating significant budgetary pressure for rural businesses.
Context & numbers
- German Day-Ahead Peak: Up to 58.51 cents/kWh (approx. €585/MWh peak hours) on September 10.
- French Wholesale High: €130.74/MWh, a three-year high.
- Polish Futures:
500 PLN/MWh (€115/MWh), highest since 2023. - EUA Price Level: >€80/t, stabilizing around €82.50/t in late August/early September.
- Wind Generation: Dropped to ~3.5 GW in Germany during the price spike.
On the radar
- Winter Gas Storage: Watch for continued withdrawals or injections in EU storage facilities as temperatures fluctuate; any further LNG supply constraints could amplify the gas-power link seen in Poland and Germany.
- UK ETS Linkage: Monitor UK Allowance (UKA) prices for divergence from EUAs, particularly if UK weather patterns differ significantly from Continental Europe during this low-wind period.
- Policy Signals: Keep an eye on upcoming EU Commission statements regarding ETS market stability reserves (MSR) adjustments, which could impact speculative sentiment if prices remain volatile near the €80 threshold.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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