European Power and Carbon: EUA, Day-Ahead Prices — 2026-09-14
European wholesale power markets experienced extreme volatility this week, driven by a sharp drop in German wind generation that pushed day-ahead prices to multi-month highs and widened price spreads with France. Meanwhile, EU carbon prices (EUA) remained resilient above €80/t, supported by tight supply dynamics and policy uncertainty, while Polish industrial stakeholders raised alarms over the rising share of carbon costs in electricity bills.
European Power and Carbon: EUA, Day-Ahead Prices — 2026-09-14
Top developments
German Day-Ahead Prices Spike as Wind Output Collapses
On September 10, 2026, German day-ahead power prices surged due to a significant drop in wind generation, with output falling to approximately 3.5 GW. This "Dunkelflaute" (dark doldrums) condition forced the market to rely on more expensive gas-fired generation, pushing spot prices for evening hours as high as 58.51 cents/kWh in some reports. The volatility highlighted the continued sensitivity of the German grid to renewable intermittency and lifted electricity costs across interconnected markets, including the UK and France.
EUA Carbon Prices Hold Above €80/t Amid Weak Speculative Demand
EU Emission Allowances (EUA) continued to trade above the €80/tonne threshold throughout early September 2026. Despite holding these levels, market participants noted that speculative demand remains weak, suggesting the price stability is driven more by compliance demand and supply constraints than by aggressive trading positions. This resilience comes despite earlier analyst forecasts that had cut price expectations due to policy reform uncertainties.
Polish Wholesale Electricity Hits Three-Year Highs
In Poland, wholesale electricity prices for future delivery jumped by 76 PLN/MWh in just one month, reaching nearly 500 PLN/MWh—the highest level since 2023. This surge is attributed to high gas and coal costs, as well as regulatory decisions by the Energy Regulatory Office (URE). Analysts warn this will lead to significant increases in household bills, potentially up to 800 PLN annually for higher-consumption households.
French Wholesale Prices Remain Tense Amid Nuclear Outages
French power markets saw wholesale prices climb to 130.74 €/MWh, a three-year high, driven by heatwaves affecting nuclear reactor efficiency and continued outages. The tightness in the French market contrasts with the earlier volatility in Germany, creating complex cross-border flows. Flash energy reports indicate that the electricity and gas markets remain tense, with significant volatility in spot prices due to the fragile nuclear park status.
Local view
Poland: Local media and industry stakeholders are deeply concerned about the impact of ETS costs on industrial competitiveness. Rzeczpospolita reports that Polish power companies are lobbying in Brussels, arguing that carbon emissions now account for 50% of the electricity price for Polish industry, a disproportionately high share compared to other EU nations. They are calling for policy changes to mitigate this burden.
France: French energy consultancy Flash Consulting highlights the persistent tension in both electricity and gas markets, noting that the volatility of the spot market is exacerbated by the operational status of the nuclear fleet. The focus is on the immediate impact on professional contracts and the need for hedging against short-term spikes.
Germany: German media outlets like MS Aktuell focused on the consumer impact of the "Dunkelflaute," noting that while fixed-price contracts remained stable for now, dynamic tariffs directly exposed consumers to the evening price spike of nearly 59 cents/kWh. This reinforces the debate around the affordability of dynamic pricing models during renewable lulls.
Context & numbers
- EUA Price: Trading above €80/t; recently eased slightly from six-month highs near €82.50/t but remains robust.
- German Day-Ahead: Spiked to ~58.51 cents/kWh (approx. 585 €/MWh peak hours) on Sept 10 due to low wind (~3.5 GW).
- French Day-Ahead: Reached 130.74 €/MWh, a three-year high, driven by nuclear outages and heat.
- Polish Base Load: Futures for next year delivery rose to ~500 PLN/MWh, +76 PLN/MWh month-on-month.
- Carbon Share in Polish Industry: ETS costs now constitute ~50% of industrial electricity prices in Poland.
On the radar
- Policy Reform Watch: Continued uncertainty regarding EU ETS reforms is keeping analysts cautious, with recent forecasts showing mixed signals on whether prices will edge up or stabilize depending on supply adjustments.
- Winter Supply Prep: With gas prices also rising, attention is shifting to storage levels and the potential for further price spikes if wind generation remains low into October.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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