European Power and Carbon: EUA, Day-Ahead Prices — 2026-09-08

Top developments

German Wind Output Drives Prices to Three-Month Lows

On September 4, 2026, German day-ahead power prices fell to €42/MWh, the lowest level since June, as strong wind generation flooded the market. This surge in renewable supply created an unusual and widening price gap with neighboring France, where wholesale prices remained significantly higher. The divergence highlights the growing impact of intermittent renewables on cross-border arbitrage and grid stability in Central Europe.

French Wholesale Prices Spike to Three-Year Highs

In stark contrast to Germany, French wholesale electricity prices spiked to €130.74/MWh in early September 2026, marking a nearly three-year high. The surge was attributed to a combination of lingering heatwaves, reduced hydro availability, and unexpected outages at several nuclear reactors. This price spike underscores the vulnerability of the French grid during late-summer demand peaks and its reliance on thermal backup when nuclear capacity is constrained.

Polish Energy Costs Hit Highest Levels Since 2023

Wholesale energy prices in Poland have risen sharply, with contracts for next-year delivery climbing by 76 PLN/MWh in one month to reach approximately 500 PLN/MWh. This is the highest level seen since 2023, driven by increased costs for gas and coal. Polish media warn that these wholesale increases will likely translate into higher household bills, potentially raising annual costs by up to 800 PLN for larger consumers, amid ongoing political pressure ahead of elections.

EU Carbon Prices Stabilize Near €82.50/t

EU Allowance (EUA) prices have eased slightly to approximately €82.48 per tonne as of late August/early September 2026, following a recent six-month high. Market trackers indicate that while volatility remains, the benchmark contract is moving in tandem with European gas prices. Analysts note that the current price level reflects a balance between strict ETS cap reductions and economic uncertainty affecting industrial demand for allowances.

Local view

Germany: Local media highlight the "wind discount" phenomenon, where strong renewable generation suppresses day-ahead prices, benefiting consumers on dynamic tariffs but challenging traditional utility margins. NDR reports that despite global geopolitical tensions, retail electricity prices for new customers remain relatively stable, largely due to long-term hedging strategies by suppliers.

Poland: Polish business outlets are heavily focused on the social impact of rising wholesale costs. Rzeczpospolita and Farmer.pl report that the jump to 500 PLN/MWh is causing alarm among households and small businesses, with experts pointing to URE (Energy Regulatory Office) decisions and fuel costs as primary drivers. The narrative is increasingly political, with opposition parties criticizing the government's energy policy amid election season preparations.

Context & numbers

• Germany Day-Ahead: €42/MWh (Sept 4, 2026) – Lowest since June.
• France Day-Ahead: €130.74/MWh (Early Sept 2026) – Near 3-year high.
• Poland Forward Power: ~500 PLN/MWh (2027 Delivery) – Highest since 2023.
• EUA Carbon Price: ~€82.48/tCO2 – Stabilizing after recent highs.
• Wind Capacity: Europe added 8.8 GW of wind capacity in H1 2026, a 30% year-on-year increase, led by German installations.

On the radar

• Winter Premium Watch: With French prices spiking and German prices low, traders are watching for the normalization of the spread as autumn demand patterns set in.
• Polish Retail Tariff Announcements: Given the 500 PLN/MWh wholesale signal, major Polish utilities are expected to announce new tariff plans in the coming weeks, which may trigger regulatory review.
• EUA Volatility: Analysts continue to monitor the correlation between EUA and TTF gas prices; any significant shift in European gas storage withdrawals could impact carbon price trajectories for Q4.