European Power and Carbon: EUA, Day-Ahead Prices — 2026-10-10
Wholesale energy prices in Europe have surged, with TGE data revealing the highest electricity and gas prices in years driven by geopolitical tensions and gas shortages. In Germany, Fraunhofer ISE simulations highlight how battery storage could drastically cut peak power prices, while French markets face structural constraints despite government pressure on nuclear output. Meanwhile, the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) saw its Q3 certificate price rise to €82.32, signaling continued upward pressure on carbon costs.
European Power and Carbon: EUA, Day-Ahead Prices — 2026-10-10
Polish wholesale prices hit multi-year highs
The Polish Power Exchange (TGE) reported that electricity and gas prices reached their highest levels in years during September 2026. The weighted average price for the annual baseload contract with delivery in 2027 (BASE_Y-27) rose significantly, reflecting market anxiety over supply security and high gas prices. This surge is linked to broader European tensions and reduced gas availability, impacting day-ahead market expectations across Central Europe.
CBAM certificate price rises to €82.32
The price of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) certificates for Q3 2026 increased by 9.35% from the previous quarter to reach €82.32 per tonne of CO₂. This increase is primarily driven by rising aluminum production costs and higher underlying EUA carbon prices. Analysts forecast further upside for Q4, with potential prices reaching €85–90/tCO₂e, which will directly impact importers of carbon-intensive goods into the EU.
German battery storage simulation shows price stabilization
Fraunhofer ISE has published new simulation results showing that deploying 20 GW of battery storage in Germany could reduce the peak day-ahead power price on the most expensive day of 2025 from €583/MWh to €221/MWh. This highlights the critical role of storage in mitigating extreme price volatility caused by renewable intermittency and gas plant marginal costs. The study suggests that without such storage capacity, consumers face continued exposure to extreme price spikes during low-wind periods.
French nuclear output debate impacts forward prices
In France, Prime Minister Lecornu’s request for EDF to maximize nuclear output has been analyzed by local media, which notes it will not lower consumer bills this winter. Forward prices for January 2027 are trading at €171/MWh, compared to an average of €98.54/MWh for the current year, indicating tight supply expectations. The regulatory framework fixes kWh prices until January 31, but future months rely on long-term purchases, limiting the immediate impact of short-term production tweaks.
Nordic price divergence widens
Nord Pool day-ahead prices for early October showed significant divergence among bidding zones. Finland (FI) recorded the lowest daily average at €26.2/MWh, while DK2 (Eastern Denmark) peaked at €167.9/MWh. This spread reflects varying wind generation levels and interconnector constraints, highlighting the fragmented nature of the Nordic market despite integrated pricing mechanisms.
Local view
In Poland, media outlets like WNP.pl and Parkiet emphasize that the recent TGE report confirms a severe tightening of the market, with prices for next year's delivery surging. Stakeholders are concerned about the impact on industrial competitiveness as gas prices remain elevated. In France, JeChange.fr argues that political calls for "full nuclear" are largely symbolic given the existing contractual structures and long-term hedging strategies of EDF, suggesting consumers should not expect immediate relief from these interventions.
Context & numbers
- CBAM Q3 Price: €82.32/tCO₂ (+9.35% QoQ).
- French Jan '27 Forward: €171/MWh.
- German Peak Price Simulation: Reduced from €583/MWh to €221/MWh with 20GW storage.
- Nordic Spread (Oct 3): FI €26.2/MWh vs DK2 €167.9/MWh.
- Polish BASE_Y-27: Prices rose significantly in September 2026, marking highs not seen since 2022.
On the radar
- Q4 CBAM Forecasts: Watch for updates on whether CBAM certificate prices breach the €90 threshold as predicted by SMM analysts.
- Winter Gas Storage Levels: Continued monitoring of EU gas storage injections, as recent reports indicate faster-than-average depletion or slower refill rates impacting forward power curves.
- German Storage Policy: Potential regulatory responses to Fraunhofer ISE findings, which may accelerate subsidies or market design changes for battery storage to curb extreme day-ahead prices.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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