European Power and Carbon: EUA, Day-Ahead Prices — 2026-10-20
European carbon prices (EUA) remain near €88/t as political pressure mounts for ETS reform, with Italy and Czechia pushing for Market Stability Reserve suspensions. Meanwhile, day-ahead power prices in Germany, France, and Poland have surged to yearly highs, driven by gas costs, low wind output, and regional supply gaps, with some markets seeing extreme intraday volatility.
European Power and Carbon: EUA, Day-Ahead Prices — 2026-10-20
Top developments
EUA Prices Hold Near €88 Amid ETS Reform Talks
EU carbon allowance prices reached approximately €88 per tonne in October, influenced by buying ahead of critical Brussels talks on ETS reform. A plan by Italy and Czechia to suspend the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) transfer is looming over the October Council meeting, creating uncertainty for compliance costs.
German Spot Prices Hit Yearly Highs
In Germany, September average spot prices rose 14.1% to a yearly high of 14.48 ct/kWh, driven by expensive gas. Intraday prices spiked above €7,000/MWh following an incident at Bergheim, highlighting extreme volatility. While solar output increased by 28.6%, onshore wind generation fell by 5.2%, exacerbating price pressures.
French Day-Ahead Prices Peak at €280/MWh
French day-ahead markets saw significant volatility in mid-October. On October 19, the average price hit €222/MWh, a monthly peak, with a high of €280/MWh at 19:00 and a low of €183/MWh at 03:00. The previous day, October 18, saw an average of €172/MWh with a peak of €246/MWh.
Polish Energy Costs Reach Record Levels
Polish SPOT energy prices reached their highest levels this year, averaging €151.89/MWh. The rise is attributed to gas and coal costs, with winter season expectations potentially driving prices higher. Contract prices for the fourth quarter of 2026 have exceeded 700 PLN/MWh.
Regional Day-Ahead Baseload Settles High
As of October 13, German, French, and Dutch day-ahead baseload contracts settled at €160.23, €169.44, and €164.05/MWh respectively, with no immediate relief expected due to falling wind forecasts.
Local view
France: Selectra reports that October 19 marked a "October summit" on the wholesale market, with average prices at €222/MWh. They highlight specific hours to avoid, noting the evening peak at 19:00 reached €280/MWh.
Germany: Top Agrar notes that a sabotage incident at Bergheim drove intraday prices above €7,000/MWh, while overall September spot prices hit a yearly high due to gas costs.
Poland: 300gospodarka.pl reports that energy prices are beating yearly records, with SPOT prices at €151.89/MWh, driven by gas and coal.
Context & numbers
- EUA Price: ~€88/t
- German Spot Average (Sept): 14.48 ct/kWh (Yearly High)
- French Day-Ahead Peak (Oct 19): €280/MWh
- Polish SPOT Average: €151.89/MWh
- Day-Ahead Baseload (Oct 13): DE €160.23/MWh, FR €169.44/MWh, NL €164.05/MWh
On the radar
- EU Council Meetings (Oct 15-16): Leaders are meeting to discuss ETS relief measures proposed by Italy and Czechia.
- Winter Season Outlook: Polish and European analysts warn that the upcoming winter season could push energy prices even higher due to increased demand and potential gas supply issues.
- Wind Forecast Decline: Short-term forecasts indicate falling wind generation in Northern Europe, reducing renewable curtailment and supporting higher thermal generation prices.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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