Other G10 Central Banks: RBA, BoC, SNB, Nordics, RBNZ — 2026-09-21
The smaller G10 central banks face a packed decision week: the SNB decides Thursday amid calls to hold at 0%, Norges Bank faces a "rate thriller" over whether to lift from 4.25%, and Sweden's Riksbank signals rising risk of Nordic-style tightening. Australia's four big banks have unified behind an RBA hike to 4.60% on September 29, while the RBNZ's September 2 hike to 2.75% continues to set it apart as a tightening outlier.
Other G10 Central Banks: RBA, BoC, SNB, Nordics, RBNZ — 2026-09-21
Top developments
All four major Australian banks forecast RBA hike to 4.60% on September 29
Australia's four major banks now unanimously forecast a 25bp RBA hike from 4.35% to 4.60% at the September 29 meeting, after Governor Bullock flagged upside inflation risks. The consensus shift makes the hike close to fully priced and puts the AUD front and centre for next week's FX trade. A surprise hold would be the bigger market-moving outcome.
SNB expected to hold at 0% on Thursday — but a December "Zinswende" is in play
ING economist Charlotte de Montpellier expects the SNB to keep its policy rate at 0% "am kommenden Donnerstag" (this Thursday, September 24) and hold through coming quarters, with the strong franc keeping inflation in check even though Swiss growth has pleasantly surprised. Blick reports market attention is on whether SNB President Martin Schlegel could turn the screw, with the earliest hike expected in December — and markets have already priced toward that.
The franc backdrop: USD/CHF recovered to around 0.8230 in Asian trading Monday as hawkish Fed expectations lifted the dollar, after a week in which the Fed–SNB rate divergence dominated CHF trading.
Norges Bank decision week: Norway's "rente thriller"
Norway's policy decision this week is billed as a genuine "rentethriller": E24 reports calls for Norges Bank to drop the hike entirely — one economist labelling a hike "galenskap" (madness) — amid fears a rate jump could trigger a wave of bankruptcies. Dagsavisen argues Norwegian growth is slowing but inflation is still too high, favouring a hold with cuts delayed. Previously, Norges Bank held at 4.25% in August while keeping a hike on the table after inflation surprised lower; Nordea believes the bank will lift to 4.5% this autumn and not cut before 2028. The outcome will drive NOK and local yield reactions hard.
Riksbank in no-hike spotlight — but banks stack up forecasts of tightening coming
The Riksbank kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% at its September 14 decision, but Swedish forecasters are converging on a coming tightening: SBAB expects two rate hikes "i närtid" on rising inflation, while Swedbank sees inflation possibly above 4% by next summer and — if energy prices stay high — four consecutive Riksbank hikes. SEB's macro strategist, writing today, expects a hawkish signal at the next decision warning households that a hike is approaching. The krona is the key transmission channel: a weaker SEK amid the ECB/Fed global hiking backdrop could pull the Riksbank along.
RBNZ tightening stance stands out as smaller banks pivot hawkish
The RBNZ raised the Official Cash Rate to 2.75% from 2.5% on September 2, citing inflation as its primary concern, with markets pricing further hikes — a notable outlier as smaller central banks diverge from Fed easing elsewhere in 2026. Markets currently put 88% odds on a hold at the October 28 meeting following that hike.
Local view
Swedish-language press is unanimous that inflation and energy prices are pulling the Riksbank against the global trend into hiking territory: Affärslivet's week-38 briefing centers on the 1.75% hold, while Placera carries SBAB, Swedbank and SEB forecasts all pointing to hikes. Norwegian media frame the Norges Bank call as brinkmanship — Nettavisen quotes chief economist Jan Ludvig Andreassen warning Norges Bank has "painted itself into a corner," while E24 and Dagsavisen debate whether inflation or growth should dominate. Swiss-language media report German expectations the SNB stays at zero; ING via VT Markets highlights carry-trade and cheap CHF-funding opportunities from a prolonged zero-rate stance.
Context & numbers
- Policy rates: Sweden 1.75%; Switzerland 0.0% with August CPI at 0.8%; Norway 4.25%; RBNZ OCR 2.75% (raised from 2.5% on September 2).
- RBA cash rate: 4.35%, with a consensus call for 4.60% on September 29.
- USD/CHF traded around 0.8230 Monday as hawkish Fed pricing offset CHF strength from the SNB's zero-rate stance.
- Global bond yields have continued rising on higher oil prices, AI capex issuance and elevated term premium, tightening financial conditions — the shared backdrop complicating hold-vs-hike calls in Oslo and Zurich.
On the radar
- Norges Bank's rate decision and rate-path update this week — Norwegian media flag a single "joker" inflation number (released Thursday at 8:00) as the potential decider between a hold and a hike to 4.5%.
- SNB decision Thursday, September 24 — watch for a December hike signal and FX-intervention language.
- RBA meeting September 29: a unanimous big-bank hike forecast to 4.60% means Governor Bullock's statement tone matters as much as the rate itself.
- RBNZ October 28 OCR decision: markets at 88% hold odds; a hawkish statement could reprice further tightening.
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