Other G10 Central Banks: RBA, BoC, SNB, Nordics, RBNZ — 2026-09-05

Top developments

Swiss Inflation Hits Two-Year High, Pressuring SNB

Swiss inflation accelerated unexpectedly in August, reaching its highest level since September 2024 and surprising analysts who had anticipated a more gradual rise. This jump, driven partly by a weaker franc feeding through to consumer prices, has intensified speculation that the SNB may need to revise its ultra-loose policy stance sooner than expected. The SNB has held its policy rate at 0.00% since June 2026, but this data print complicates the case for maintaining zero rates through its September 24 meeting.

Nordea Forecasts Rate Hikes for Sweden and Norway

Major financial institution Nordea has issued updated forecasts suggesting that both the Riksbank and Norges Bank will raise rates in the autumn of 2026. For Sweden, Nordea predicts a hike in November, citing robust economic growth across broad sectors, while for Norway, they expect a move from 4.25% to 4.50% in the same period. These forecasts contrast with the Riksbank’s recent hold at 1.75% and Norges Bank’s hold at 4.25%, though both central banks have left the door open for tightening if inflation persists.

Bank of Canada Holds Amid Tariff Uncertainty

The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to hold interest rates steady in early September, prioritizing caution amidst escalating trade tensions with the United States. The "retaliatory tariff blitz" from the US has complicated the BoC’s mandate, forcing policymakers to balance strong domestic growth against significant external trade risks. Markets are now closely watching how these trade disputes will impact Canadian inflation expectations in the coming quarters.

RBNZ Maintains OCR at 2.75%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.75% in its September decision, aligning with market forecasts. The statement was described as "appropriately balanced," reflecting a cautious approach as the economy navigates global headwinds and local growth concerns. The AUD/NZD pair saw some volatility leading up to the decision but settled as the hold was confirmed.

Local view

Switzerland: Local media outlets like Cash and Watson highlight the surprise nature of the August inflation data, noting that while experts are "surprised," they are not yet "alarmed," though the pressure on the SNB is mounting. Finanzen.ch reports that the stronger inflation print helped stabilize the Swiss franc against other currencies, reducing the immediate need for SNB FX intervention but increasing domestic policy complexity.

Sweden & Norway: In Sweden, Placera.se emphasizes that Nordea’s November hike forecast is driven by "stuns in step" (strong momentum) in the Swedish economy. In Norway, E24 highlights Nordea Markets' view that there will be no rate cuts before 2028, signaling a prolonged period of higher-for-longer rates which impacts mortgage holders significantly.

Context & numbers

• SNB Policy Rate: 0.00% (held since June 2026); next decision due September 24, 2026.
• Riksbank Policy Rate: 1.75% (held in August 2026); Nordea forecasts a hike to 2.00%+ in November.
• Norges Bank Policy Rate: 4.25% (held in August 2026); Nordea forecasts a hike to 4.50% in autumn.
• RBNZ OCR: 2.75% (held in September 2026).
• Swiss Inflation: Surged in August 2026 to the fastest pace since September 2024.

On the radar

• SNB Decision (Sept 24): The most critical upcoming event for the G10 non-majors. The surprise inflation print makes a hawkish surprise or at least a significant change in forward guidance possible.
• Riksbank Meeting (Oct/Nov): Watch for confirmation of the Nordea forecast. Swedish economic data releases over the next month will be pivotal in determining if a November hike is viable.
• Norges Bank Meeting (Sept/Oct): With inflation potentially ticking up again, the "hold" stance may shift to a "hike" if the krone's strength does not sufficiently curb imported inflation.