Other G10 Central Banks: RBA, BoC, SNB, Nordics, RBNZ — 2026-09-09
Sweden’s Riksbank held its policy rate steady at 1.75% on September 7, with local data showing inflation moderating in line with forecasts, effectively pricing out a September hike. Meanwhile, Norwegian banks are heavily signaling an imminent rate increase to 4.50%, while the Swiss National Bank faces renewed pressure as August inflation surged to a two-year high.
Other G10 Central Banks: RBA, BoC, SNB, Nordics, RBNZ — 2026-09-09
Top developments
Riksbank holds rates as Swedish inflation cools
On September 7, 2026, the Riksbank announced it would leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, marking another pause in its easing cycle. The decision followed the release of September CPI data which showed price pressures dampening and aligning closely with the central bank's projections. Local analysts note that this data release has effectively removed the likelihood of a rate hike in September, shifting market focus toward potential moves in late 2026 or early 2027.
Norges Bank faces pressure to hike to 4.50%
Norway’s Norges Bank, which held its policy rate at 4.25% in August, is facing strong market signals for an increase in its upcoming decision. Major financial institutions, including Handelsbanken and Nordea Markets, are forecasting a hike to 4.50% later this year, citing persistent underlying inflation and resilient economic activity. Nordea specifically warned that rates may remain elevated through 2028, cautioning borrowers that the era of low interest rates is definitively over.
SNB under scrutiny after surprise inflation spike
The Swiss National Bank (SNB), currently holding its policy rate at 0.00%, is encountering unexpected headwinds after August inflation data jumped to its highest level in two years. While the SNB has maintained a wait-and-see approach since June, the recent uptick in prices has sparked debate among economists about whether the central bank might need to adjust its stance sooner than anticipated. The Swiss franc has seen mixed reactions, with USD/CHF trading around 0.8090–0.8110 as markets weigh the SNB’s reluctance to hike against global dollar strength.
Local view
In Sweden, Dagens Industri and Placera.se highlight that the moderation in August inflation was crucial for the Riksbank’s decision to stand pat, with Swedbank’s chief economist noting the risk of a September hike has significantly diminished. Conversely, Norwegian media outlets like E24 and NRK are focused on the "joker" number—upcoming labor or wage data—that could tip the scales for Norges Bank’s next move, with Handelsbanken explicitly predicting a rate peak at 4.50%.
Context & numbers
- Riksbank Policy Rate: Held at 1.75% on September 7, 2026.
- Norges Bank Policy Rate: Currently at 4.25%; consensus expects a rise to 4.50% in autumn 2026.
- SNB Policy Rate: Unchanged at 0.00% since June 2026; next decision scheduled for September 24, 2026.
- USD/CHF Exchange Rate: Trading near 0.8090 as of September 9, reflecting modest franc strength despite domestic inflation concerns.
On the radar
- SNB Decision Date: The Swiss National Bank’s next monetary policy assessment is scheduled for September 24, 2026. Markets will watch closely if the August inflation spike prompts any change in forward guidance or a symbolic rate adjustment.
- Norges Bank "Joker" Data: Norwegian financial media is anticipating key economic data releases later this week that could determine the timing of the next rate hike.
- RBNZ Outlook: Market odds currently sit at 88% for a hold at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s October 28 meeting, following their September decision to raise the OCR to 2.75%.
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