Other G10 Central Banks: RBA, BoC, SNB, Nordics, RBNZ — 2026-09-12

The divergence in monetary policy among smaller G10 central banks has intensified this week, with the ECB hiking rates to 2.50% while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Riksbank hold steady. Norges Bank faces critical inflation data that could dictate its next move, while the RBNZ remains on hold with markets pricing a high probability of no change until late October.

Top developments

SNB Holds at Zero Amidst Euro Strength

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained its policy rate at 0.00%, marking its fourth consecutive pause, even as the European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates to 2.50% on September 10. This policy divergence has pushed the Swiss Franc to a 17-month low against the Euro, as investors seek yield differentials. SNB President Martin Schlegel noted that while inflation has accelerated slightly in recent months, it remains within the stability band, allowing the central bank to "wait for now" despite global energy volatility.

Riksbank Diverges from ECB Hike Cycle

Sweden’s Riksbank is expected to keep its policy rate on hold at 1.75% for the remainder of 2026, contrasting sharply with the ECB’s tightening stance. Nomura strategists predict only one 25 basis point hike to 2.00% in early 2027, citing low domestic inflation readings that have nearly priced out a September hike. However, Commerzbank analysts warn that the Riksbank may maintain guidance for a potential hike by year-end if energy prices or currency weakness persist, keeping the Swedish Krona under pressure.

Norges Bank Awaits Critical Inflation Print

Norges Bank is holding its policy rate at 4.25% but remains poised for a potential hike later this year, with markets closely watching the upcoming inflation data release. Nordea Markets forecasts a hike to 4.50% in the autumn, warning that inflation could remain elevated until 2028. Local media emphasizes that the next inflation figure is a "joker" that could either halt the hiking cycle or confirm further tightening, significantly impacting Norwegian mortgage rates.

RBNZ and BoC Signal Patience

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is currently priced by markets with an 88% probability of holding the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at its October 28 meeting. Similarly, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held its benchmark rate at 2.25% in its most recent update, leaning toward no change in the near term as it assesses the impact of previous hikes. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) also left its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in its latest available decision statement, maintaining a cautious stance amid global uncertainty.

Local view

In Sweden, local financial outlet Hurbra.se highlights how the Riksbank is "swimming against the current" by staying idle while the ECB hikes, noting that energy prices and the Krona's trajectory are the key variables that could force a change. Meanwhile, SVT Nyheter quotes economic commentators stating that standing still is "logical" given the data, though warnings of a later hike remain prominent in public discourse.

Norwegian media, particularly E24 and Nettavisen, are heavily focused on the "joker" number—the upcoming inflation print—that will determine whether Norges Bank proceeds with a hike from 4.25%. Borsen.dagbladet.no amplifies Nordea’s warning that high rates could persist until 2028, creating anxiety among homeowners with variable-rate mortgages.

In Switzerland, SRF explains why the SNB is not under pressure to hike despite global trends, citing the country's unique deflationary risks and strong currency dynamics that allow it to keep rates at zero.

Context & numbers

• Policy Rates:

  • ECB: Hiked to 2.50% (Deposit rate) on Sept 10, 2026
  • RBA: 4.35% (Cash Rate Target) – Unchanged
  • Norges Bank: 4.25% (Policy Rate) – Unchanged
  • BoC: 2.25% (Overnight Rate) – Unchanged
  • Riksbank: 1.75% (Repo Rate) – Unchanged
  • SNB: 0.00% (Policy Rate) – Unchanged

• Market Expectations:

  • RBNZ: 88% odds of hold at Oct 28 meeting
  • USD/EUR: BNP Paribas targets 1.20 USD/EUR over 12 months, noting dollar strength has lost steam post-Iran conflict energy surge

On the radar

• Canadian CPI: Release scheduled for Monday, Sept 14, 2026, which will be critical for the Bank of Canada's next decision.
• FOMC Decision: The US Federal Reserve meets on September 16, 2026, with CME FedWatch pricing a ~60% chance of a quarter-point hike; this will heavily influence global G10 currencies including the CAD, AUD, and NZD.
• Norwegian Inflation Data: The upcoming print is viewed as the decisive factor for Norges Bank's autumn rate path.