Other G10 Central Banks: RBA, BoC, SNB, Nordics, RBNZ — 2026-09-08
The Riksbank held its policy rate at 1.75% on September 7, signaling a potential hike later in the year as inflation data softened. Meanwhile, Norwegian markets are bracing for a rate hike this autumn, with Nordea predicting a move to 4.5%, while the SNB remains on hold at 0% amid stable growth expectations.
Other G10 Central Banks: RBA, BoC, SNB, Nordics, RBNZ — 2026-09-08
Top developments
Riksbank holds rates but warns of hikes
On September 7, the Swedish central bank (Riksbank) decided to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. Despite the hold, officials warned that a rate hike could still occur later in 2026 if inflation pressures persist. The decision aligns with market expectations after recent inflation prints came in lower than anticipated, reducing the urgency for immediate tightening.
Norway’s Nordea predicts autumn rate hike to 4.5%
Financial institution Nordea has issued a forecast that Norges Bank will raise its key policy rate from the current 4.25% to 4.5% in the autumn of 2026. This projection is driven by expectations of persistent inflationary pressures, with Nordea suggesting rates could remain elevated until 2028. This contrasts with the current hold by Norges Bank, which kept rates steady in August but left the door open for future hikes.
SNB maintains zero percent policy rate
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to hold its policy rate at 0.00%, marking its fourth consecutive pause since June 2026. Local analysis suggests the SNB is adopting a "wait and see" approach, noting that the global economy, particularly in Europe, is showing resilience despite energy shocks. With the next decision scheduled for September 24, markets are watching for any shifts in inflation trends, though recent data shows only modest increases.
RBNZ forecasts further OCR increase
Following its September 2026 Monetary Policy Statement, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) forecasts an average Official Cash Rate (OCR) of 2.81% for Q4 2026. This implies a 25 basis point hike at the December meeting, following an expected hold in October. The statement was described as "appropriately balanced," reflecting a cautious approach to balancing growth risks against inflation control.
Local view
In Sweden, local media highlights that the September hike is "almost priced out" due to lower-than-expected inflation figures. Danske Bank analysts have shifted focus to November as the likely window for a rate increase, impacting mortgage rates and the Swedish krona.
Norwegian outlet E24 reports that a single upcoming economic data point could be decisive for Norges Bank’s autumn decision. Experts warn that while summer inflation dipped, the central bank remains wary of canceling a hike too early.
Swiss media notes that the SNB is not under pressure to hike despite global rate hikes elsewhere, citing the unique structure of the Swiss economy and low pass-through of global energy costs.
Context & numbers
- Riksbank Policy Rate: 1.75% (Held on Sep 7, 2026).
- Norges Bank Policy Rate: 4.25% (Held on Aug 13, 2026; Nordea forecasts 4.5% by autumn).
- SNB Policy Rate: 0.00% (Held since June 18, 2026; next decision Sep 24, 2026).
- RBNZ OCR Forecast: 2.81% average for Q4 2026, implying a hike in December.
- USD/CHF Exchange Rate: Trading around 0.8110 as the dollar strengthens on Fed hike bets.
On the radar
- September 24, 2026: Next SNB interest rate decision. Markets are watching for any deviation from the zero-rate stance.
- November 2026: Potential Riksbank rate hike window identified by Danske Bank analysts after September's hold.
- December 2026: Expected RBNZ rate hike to push OCR toward 2.81% average for Q4.
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