Other G10 Central Banks: RBA, BoC, SNB, Nordics, RBNZ — 2026-09-02
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its Official Cash Rate to 2.75% on September 2, aligning with market forecasts and signaling potential further hikes. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada faces a complex decision environment this week as it navigates strong domestic growth against the backdrop of escalating US tariff threats. In Europe and Scandinavia, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Riksbank remain in holding patterns, with the Swedish central bank explicitly flagging the possibility of a rate hike later this year.
Other G10 Central Banks: RBA, BoC, SNB, Nordics, RBNZ — 2026-09-02
RBNZ raises OCR to 2.75%, signals further tightening
On Wednesday, September 2, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, marking the second consecutive hike. The decision met consensus expectations, but the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement was hawkish, with the RBNZ forecasting an average OCR of 2.81% in Q4 2026. This projection implies another 25bp hike at the December meeting, following a likely hold in October. The NZD initially softened but stabilized as traders digested the "appropriately balanced" yet restrictive guidance.
Bank of Canada weighs tariff risks against strong growth
The Bank of Canada is expected to hold its policy rate steady at its Wednesday decision, despite robust domestic economic growth. The primary complication is the intensifying trade dispute with the United States, where retaliatory tariffs have created significant uncertainty for Canadian exporters. Markets are watching closely for any shift in forward guidance that might acknowledge these external shocks, which could delay future easing cycles even if domestic inflation cools.
Nordea predicts Norges Bank hike to 4.5% before cuts in 2028
Norwegian financial institution Nordea Markets has issued a stark forecast suggesting Norges Bank will raise its policy rate from 4.25% to 4.5% in the autumn, with no rate cuts expected until 2028. This outlook contrasts with earlier hopes for a quicker easing cycle, citing persistent inflationary pressures in the Norwegian economy. The prediction has weighed on the NOK, as investors adjust their expectations for higher borrowing costs extending well into 2027 and beyond.
Riksbank holds at 1.75% but flags November hike
The Swedish Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% in August, but its communication has become increasingly hawkish. Following unexpectedly high summer inflation prints, the bank explicitly stated that the probability of a rate hike later this year remains high. Local analysts, including those at Nordea, now widely anticipate a hike in November, marking a sharp reversal from the easing trend seen earlier in 2026.
Local view
In Sweden, local media is focusing heavily on the implications of a potential November hike for mortgage holders. Placera.se reports that Nordea’s forecast of a November hike is gaining traction among Swedish economists, noting that the economy is growing "on a broad front." The narrative has shifted from relief over stable rates to caution about rising costs, with households advised to review their variable-rate exposure.
In Norway, the sentiment is similarly cautious. E24 highlights Nordea’s "discouraging message" regarding interest rates, emphasizing that the wait for rate cuts will be long. The discussion centers on whether the autumn hike is already priced in or if Norges Bank will surprise markets with a more aggressive stance due to sticky inflation.
In Switzerland, the focus is on the SNB’s balance sheet. NZZ.ch published an opinion piece arguing that the current weakness of the franc is an opportunity for the SNB to reduce its massive foreign currency holdings. The argument suggests that with inflation under control, the SNB should intervene less aggressively to support the currency, allowing market forces to rebalance the economy.
Context & numbers
- RBNZ OCR: Raised to 2.75% on Sept 2, 2026. Forecast for Q4 2026 average is 2.81%, implying a hike to 3.00% in December.
- Norges Bank Policy Rate: Currently 4.25%. Nordea forecasts a hike to 4.50% in autumn 2026, with no cuts until 2028.
- Riksbank Policy Rate: Unchanged at 1.75% since September 2025. Market pricing now leans toward a hike in November 2026.
- SNB Policy Rate: Unchanged at 0.00%. Next decision scheduled for September 24, 2026.
- Currency Moves: USD/CHF traded around 0.8130 on Sept 2, reflecting dollar strength amid Fed hike concerns. AUD/NZD pulled back from highs near 1.2065 ahead of the RBNZ decision.
On the radar
- Bank of Canada Decision: Scheduled for Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Watch for commentary on US tariff impacts on Canadian growth and inflation outlooks.
- SNB Decision: Upcoming meeting on September 24, 2026. Given the SNB’s recent inactivity and the franc’s weakness, markets will look for any hints of balance sheet reduction or verbal intervention.
- Swedish CPI Data: Key inflation prints leading up to November will determine if the Riksbank follows through on its hawkish signal.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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