Other G10 Central Banks: RBA, BoC, SNB, Nordics, RBNZ — 2026-10-17
Bank of Canada markets are pricing a 25-basis-point cut for its October 28 decision following a significant drop in September employment, while RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway declared the late-October rate decision "completely open" amid rising inflation pressures. Meanwhile, the Riksbank held its policy rate steady at 1.75% in a move confirmed by local Swedish media this week, maintaining a divergence from tightening peers like Norges Bank.
Other G10 Central Banks: RBA, BoC, SNB, Nordics, RBNZ — 2026-10-17
Top developments
RBNZ Chief Economist Calls October Decision "Wide Open"
On October 15, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway stated that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s upcoming interest rate decision in late October is "completely open" between a hold and a 25-basis-point hike. Conway noted that while the OCR is "more likely to rise" due to building inflation pressures and oil prices, the specific outcome remains uncertain. This commentary has kept NZD volatility elevated as traders weigh the risk of further tightening against slowing growth signals.
Bank of Canada Leans Toward 25bps Cut After Jobs Slump
Markets are increasingly pricing a 25-basis-point rate cut for the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision after September data revealed a loss of 68,000 jobs. While a hold remains possible, the sharp deterioration in the labor market has shifted consensus toward easing. RBC economists Claire Fan and Abbey Xu noted that the inflation-growth tradeoff is keeping policy on hold for now, but the weak labor data significantly increases the probability of a cut at the next meeting.
Riksbank Holds Styrräntan at 1.75%
The Sveriges Riksbank maintained its policy rate (styrräntan) at 1.75% in its most recent decision, a move highlighted by Swedish financial media this week. Local outlet Affärslivet confirmed the hold on October 12, noting that while the Swedish economy shows strength, the Riksbank is resisting immediate hikes. Most forecasters still anticipate the rate rising to 2.0% by the end of 2026, but the central bank remains cautious about supply-side disturbances.
Local view
Sweden: Swedish financial blog Affärslivet reported on the Riksbank’s October 12 decision to keep the styrräntan unchanged at 1.75%, emphasizing the bank's cautious stance despite economic strength. The local commentary suggests that while the "rate revolver" is secured, the Riksbank is not in a rush to tighten further given current inflation dynamics.
Canada: RBC Economics analysts Claire Fan and Abbey Xu are closely monitoring the Bank of Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey and upcoming inflation prints. Their assessment indicates that rising bond yields and softer labor data are buying central banks time, with the Fed still expected to hike a total of 75 basis points in 2026, albeit at a slower pace than previously forecast.
Context & numbers
- Bank of Canada Jobs: 68,000 jobs lost in September 2026, driving expectations for an October 28 rate cut.
- Riksbank Policy Rate: Held at 1.75% as of October 2026.
- Bond Yields (Oct 2026): Canada 10-year yields are trading at 4.28%, while the UK 30-year gilt is at 6.04% and the US 10-year at 5.63%.
On the radar
- October 28: Bank of Canada policy decision. Markets are split between a 25bps cut and a hold, with the jobs data being the primary driver.
- Late October: RBNZ policy decision. Conway’s "wide open" comment keeps the market pricing both a hold and a 25bps hike.
- SNB Watch: Following the September hold at 0%, Swiss markets are watching for any signs of a pivot away from negative/zero rates given the stronger global yield environment, though no SNB decision is scheduled for this immediate window.
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