Other G10 Central Banks: RBA, BoC, SNB, Nordics, RBNZ — 2026-09-24
A hawkish wave swept the smaller G10 central banks this week: Norges Bank hiked 25bp to 4.50%, while the Riksbank held at 1.75% but sharply raised the odds of a Q4 hike. The SNB, in contrast, stayed at 0% despite rising inflation and a weaker franc, while the Bank of Canada's October decision is being complicated by energy risks.
Other G10 Central Banks: RBA, BoC, SNB, Nordics, RBNZ — 2026-09-24
Top developments
Norges Bank raises policy rate to 4.50% and lifts the rate path
On 24 September Norges Bank raised its policy rate by 25bp from 4.25% to 4.50%, in line with forecasts, and revised up the policy rate path. Governor Ida Wolden Bache said the hike is intended "to dampen price growth," and the new path implies some risk of a further hike, possibly as soon as by next summer — even as unemployment is expected to rise somewhat. Nordea's Kjetil Olsen notes the rate looks set to stay "elevated for longer," with risk of another move within six months.
Riksbank holds at 1.75% but raises the odds of a Q4 hike
At its decision on 24 September, the Riksbank left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% — where it has stood since September 2025 — but cited a stronger economy and continued supply disruptions, raising the assessed probability of a rate increase later this year. Analysts framed it bluntly: "the question is no longer whether, but when and by how much" the Riksbank hikes. Most forecasters see the rate at 2.0% by end-2026. Commerzbank's Antje Praefcke expects the bank to keep signaling that a further increase remains possible by year-end.
SNB stays at 0% despite higher inflation and a weaker franc
At its 24 September policy assessment, the Swiss National Bank held its policy rate at 0%, resisting the international tightening trend, while lifting its inflation forecast only modestly. The franc weakened against the euro and the dollar on the decision. Governor Martin Schlegel defended the zero-rate policy at the media conference and said the franc is "currently an ally of the SNB." Switzerland now has the lowest policy rate in the world.
Bank of Canada: energy risks complicate the October call
RBC economist Rachel Battaglia argues that higher backward-looking population growth implies stronger potential output, mechanically reducing pressure on the BoC to hike — but energy-price risks are complicating the assessment ahead of the October decision.
Local view
- Norway: NRK reports the rate top is "probably reached," according to a chief economist — even as the bank signals possible further hikes; E24 notes the governor is "prepared to increase the rate even more."
- Sweden: SVT's analysis says the Riksbank has "cocked the rate revolver," while SHB flags that the weak krona is "increasingly hard to ignore" for the bank.
- Switzerland: NZZ writes that the SNB declined to tighten despite rising inflation pressure, with the "rate turnaround" in Switzerland delayed.
Context & numbers
- Norges Bank policy rate: 4.50% (after a 25bp hike from 4.25%).
- Riksbank policy rate: 1.75%; most forecasters see 2.0% by end-2026.
- SNB policy rate: 0% — the world's lowest.
- RBA cash rate: 4.35%, unchanged as of the August 11 decision; next meeting looms with major Australian banks forecasting a hike to 4.60%.
On the radar
- The RBA meets 29 September, with all four major Australian banks forecasting a hike to 4.60%.
- Bank of Canada October decision — RBC flags energy-price risks as the key complicating factor.
- Swiss commentary flags a possible SNB rate hike as early as December; fuw.ch asks whether the "Zinswende" comes then.
- Norges Bank published its Monetary Policy Report 3/2026 alongside the decision, containing the updated rate path.
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