Gold, Silver and Precious Metals Daily — 2026-09-28
Gold spent the week defending the $4,300 level as hawkish Fed expectations and rising Treasury yields overwhelmed bullion, with spot falling below $4,300 after strong US PMI data. Goldman Sachs raised the stakes with a $4,900/oz year-end call, estimating China bought 75% more gold than officially reported in July. Wall Street forecasters are split while Main Street remains bullish, and Indian silver has crashed ₹1.85 lakh from its high.
Gold, Silver and Precious Metals Daily — 2026-09-28
Top developments
Goldman Sachs: $4,900/oz year-end target as China under-reports buying
Goldman Sachs Research says central bank purchases remained strong through July and its "GS nowcast" estimates China bought roughly 75% more bullion than official disclosures show in July, supporting a year-end price target of $4,900/oz. If correct, this hidden sovereign demand would explain part of the resilience gold has shown despite the Fed tightening cycle — a key structural support for spot gold floor prices.
Gold breaks below $4,300 as yields hit 2004 highs and PMI surprises
Strong US PMI data pushed spot gold below the $4,300 mark this week, with gold falling about $100 to $4,297 as 10-year yields hit 5.53% — a level last seen in 2004. Silver dropped 3% alongside. Kitco's AM report on Wednesday (9/23) had spot gold near $4,308.40 as a stronger dollar and renewed Fed tightening expectations bit. The move matters for ETF flows, as real-yield shrinkage typically pressures Western investor demand.
Wall Street split, Main Street bullish after week below $4,350
Kitco's weekly survey (published 9/25) found Wall Street analysts divided on gold's path after the drop below $4,300, while retail (Main Street) sentiment kept a bullish majority. Early attempts to stabilize above $4,350 were overwhelmed by higher yields, hawkish Fed expectations, and inflation concerns tied to energy prices and the US–Iran conflict. A split institutional view suggests rangebound trade into early October unless yields roll over.
Silver briefly leads; COMEX settles $4,321.20 gold, $64.80 silver Friday
On Friday 9/25, weakening dollar helped COMEX December gold close at $4,321.20/oz (+0.54%) and December silver at $64.801/oz (+1.25%). Earlier in the week (Tuesday 9/22) silver led metals sharply higher as lower oil eased the Strait of Hormuz inflation shock, but a firm dollar capped gold. The gold-silver ratio compressed to 65.7 by Monday 9/21, tracking physical silver near $66.
Platinum up 21% — the year's standout PGM mover
A September-2026 outlook notes platinum has surged 21% while gold holds above $4,349 despite rate hikes and silver is base-building, with real yields the key variable for sizing allocations across gold, silver and platinum. The platinum outperformance contrasts with palladium's unspecified path and highlights industrial-demand dynamics in PGMs.
Local view
China: Sina Finance's hourly precious-metals report (9/27) led with the PMI-driven break below $4,300, advising readers to watch the nonferrous/metals complex on dips. Domestic Shanghai Gold Exchange pricing: the Shanghai Gold morning benchmark was 942 yuan/gram on 9/21, a 2.73 yuan/gram premium to the implied international price, with Au(T+D) closing down 0.38% at 938.3 yuan/g and Ag(T+D) at 16,040 yuan/kg. Mainland commentary (via Sohu's data week) noted Goldman's $5,400 end-2027 forecast and expectations gold could top $5,000/oz in 2027, with central bank buying and Middle East risk cited as supports despite monetary tightening.
India: AajTak reported silver has crashed ₹1.85 lakh from its recent high over five sessions of losses, with gold also deeply corrected (as of 9/27). Earlier in the week, Moneycontrol Hindi noted Delhi gold fell ₹200 to ₹1,56,400 per 10 grams on 9/21 while silver dropped ₹5,000 in a single day to ₹2.42 lakh/kg. By 9/25, Economic Times Hindi reported Comex gold recovering with MCX gold back above ₹1.5 lakh/10g, suggesting bargain demand around the jewellery-buying window.
Vietnam: Local commentator Châu Xuân Nguyễn reported (9/25) that domestic gold prices unexpectedly moved sideways for four consecutive sessions after a week of volatile swings.
Context & numbers
- Spot gold: traded near $4,297–$4,321 by Friday 9/25 close (COMEX Dec: $4,321.20); intraweek high attempt above $4,350 failed.
- Silver: COMEX Dec $64.801/oz (+1.25% Friday); physical near $66 early in the week, gold-silver ratio at 65.7.
- US 10-year Treasury: 5.53%, highest since 2004 — the single biggest bearish driver this week.
- Platinum: +21% year move per September outlook.
- Central banks: strong July purchases reported, with China estimated to have bought 75% more than disclosed (GS nowcast); Q1 2026 WGC-estimated net purchases were 244t.
- Shanghai gold: 942 yuan/g morning fix 9/21 (small ~2.73 yuan/gram premium).
- India retail: Delhi gold ₹1,56,400/10g at 9/21; silver down to ₹2.42 lakh/kg.
On the radar
- US jobs data: Kitco's weekly survey notes employment figures now "take center stage" — the next read will set the Fed-hike odds that drove the week's sell-off.
- Strait of Hormuz / US–Iran risk premium: fading with lower oil this week, but a re-escalation would revive gold's safe-haven bid.
- Whether the GS nowcast's implied China understatement (75% above reported July figures) is validated in upcoming official PBoC reserve data.
- Chinese (Mainland) "Super data week" ahead of the long holiday, which Sohu says has global assets awaiting repricing — a potential volatility window for metals.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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