Gold, Silver and Precious Metals Daily — 2026-10-18
Spot gold remains volatile near the $4,170–$4,200 range as hot U.S. inflation data clashes with central bank accumulation and record ETF holdings. While Western speculative positioning retreats, China’s central bank expanded its buying streak to 23 months with a significant September addition, and Indian import volumes have plummeted due to duty impacts.
Gold, Silver and Precious Metals Daily — 2026-10-18
Top developments
Central Banks Accumulate While ETFs Hit Record Levels
Central banks purchased approximately 289 tonnes of gold recently, providing a structural floor for prices even as some ETF investors engaged in profit-taking. Despite these outflows, total gold ETF holdings reached a record 4,256 tonnes, indicating that long-term institutional demand remains robust against short-term volatility. This divergence suggests that physical and official sector buying is offsetting speculative retreats from the COMEX futures market.
China’s PBoC Extends Buying Streak to 23 Months
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) increased its gold reserves by 23 tonnes in September, marking the 23rd consecutive month of accumulation and the largest single-month purchase since October 2023. This move coincides with a surge in Chinese gold ETF net inflows, bringing local ETF holdings to a record 304 tonnes. The combination of official buying and strong retail demand from holiday shopping has supported the Shanghai premium and stabilized domestic prices despite global fluctuations.
India’s Gold Imports Plunge 81% in September
India’s gold imports fell sharply by 81% year-on-year in September, while silver imports declined by 49%, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce. This significant drop is attributed to the impact of import duties and a broader appeal for domestic production, alongside seasonal lulls before the festive peak. The reduction in physical demand from India, traditionally a major price driver, has contributed to softer spot prices in the short term.
Hot U.S. Inflation Data Pressures Gold Near $4,170
Spot gold hovered near $4,170 on Friday, October 16, as stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data (CPI at 3.7%) reinforced bets on Federal Reserve tightening. Although gold rebounded earlier in the week due to falling Treasury yields, the resurgence of "higher-for-longer" rate expectations capped upside momentum. Analysts note that gold requires a dovish Fed pivot or renewed debasement fears to break out of its current consolidation range.
Local view
China: Local media highlights the structural shift in China's gold market, noting that "self-wearing" jewelry consumption is driving retail sales, particularly among younger demographics. The Shanghai premium remains a key indicator as domestic demand stays resilient despite global price corrections. Reports emphasize that the PBoC’s accumulation is part of a broader de-dollarization strategy, with official reserves reaching 77.47 million ounces (approx. 2,400 tonnes) as of late September.
India: Indian bullion markets are experiencing a significant dip, with Delhi’s 24-carat gold trading around ₹1,47,580 per 10 grams as of mid-October. Local stakeholders report that the high import duty and GST structure are suppressing physical demand, leading to a 27% decline in April-September gold imports. Jewelers are watching the festive season closely to see if lower global prices can stimulate enough demand to offset the tax burden.
Context & numbers
- Spot Gold Price: Traded at approximately $4,156–$4,170/oz on October 16, 2026.
- U.S. Inflation: CPI ran at 3.7%, keeping December Fed tightening in play.
- ETF Holdings: Global gold ETFs hold a record 4,256 tonnes; China’s ETFs hold a record 304 tonnes.
- Central Bank Buying: Global central banks bought ~289 tonnes recently; China added 23 tonnes in September.
- India Import Duty: 15% import duty plus 3% GST continues to impact physical demand and import volumes.
On the radar
- Fed Decision Impact: Investors are looking past the immediate inflation data to the next Fed decision, with Julius Baer analysts suggesting support for gold beyond the current inflation shock.
- Silver Price Test: Silver is facing a key technical test near $60/oz, with Heraeus analysts noting that its direction will depend heavily on industrial demand and the dollar's strength.
- Indian Festive Demand: The upcoming festive season in India will be a critical test for whether lower global prices can overcome the high import duty to revive physical buying.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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