Grains: Wheat, Corn and Soybeans Daily — 2026-09-13
The September USDA WASDE report triggered significant volatility, with soybean futures tumbling over 13 cents overnight as the agency raised US crop yield estimates. While corn and wheat faced pressure from higher supply forecasts and weak export sales, the Black Sea region saw a dramatic collapse in Russian wheat exports due to port attacks and logistical shifts, potentially tightening global supply later in the season. Meanwhile, Brazilian farmers accelerated pre-harvest sales of the 2026/27 soybean crop, capitalizing on favorable price signals.
Grains: Wheat, Corn and Soybeans Daily — 2026-09-13
Top developments
WASDE Raises US Soybean Yields, Pressuring Futures
On September 11, the USDA released its September WASDE report, which defied market expectations by increasing the forecast for US soybean production. This surprise led to an immediate sell-off, with November soybean futures closing at $12.96 1/2 per bushel, a drop of 35 3/4 cents. The report also adjusted corn ending stocks, contributing to a decline in December corn futures to $5.30 1/4 per bushel, down 3 1/2 cents. The higher yield estimates suggest a more abundant harvest than previously anticipated, weighing heavily on CBOT settlements as traders reassessed supply balances.
Russian Wheat Exports Collapse in September
Russian wheat exports to external markets plummeted by a factor of 6.5 times in early September compared to previous periods, driven by attacks on Black Sea ports and a shift in logistics to Baltic routes like Ust-Luga. Analytical center Rusagrotrans predicts that monthly exports could fall to 1.75 million tonnes, nearly three times lower than the same period last year. This disruption removes a major competitor from the global market, potentially supporting prices for US and EU wheat despite the bearish WASDE data.
US Wheat Export Sales Hit Marketing Year Low
USDA data released on September 10 revealed that US wheat export sales for the week ending September 3 fell to a marketing year low. The sluggish demand is attributed to US wheat remaining relatively high-priced compared to competing origins, despite the recent geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea. December Chicago wheat futures closed at $7.25 1/4 per bushel, down 16 cents, reflecting the lack of buying interest from traditional importers.
Brazil Accelerates 2026/27 Soybean Sales
Brazilian farmers have commercialized 29.1% of their future 2026/27 soybean crop, a move driven by improved price signals in Chicago and the domestic market. This aggressive pre-harvest selling locks in revenue before the main harvest begins, reducing the immediate spot supply from Brazil and potentially shifting demand toward US soybeans in the near term. The USDA also raised its forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 corn crop, indicating robust carryover supplies.
Local view
Russia (Pravda.ru): Local economic commentary highlights the severe impact of Western sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian logistics. The shift to Baltic ports is described not just as a logistical change but as a strategic necessity that has drastically reduced volume throughput, with analysts noting that "colossal losses" are being absorbed by state subsidies and tax incentives.
Brazil (Globo Rural): Brazilian media reports emphasize the disconnect between falling Chicago prices and local producer confidence. Despite the global sell-off, local stakeholders note that the "destravamento" (unblocking) of sales for the new crop indicates that Brazilian farmers feel secure enough with current price floors to commit inventory early, viewing the volatility as a temporary reaction to US weather models rather than a long-term trend.
Context & numbers
- CBOT Settlements (Sept 11):
- Soybeans (Nov): $12.96 1/2/bu (-35.75c)
- Corn (Dec): $5.30 1/4/bu (-3.5c)
- Wheat (Dec): $7.25 1/4/bu (-16c)
- Argentine Export Record: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentine agricultural exports reached a record 80.7 million tonnes through August, up 12.5% year-over-year, driven by strong maize and wheat shipments.
- Russian Export Forecast: Analysts have cut the forecast for Russian wheat exports for the 2026/27 season to 43 million tonnes, down from earlier projections, citing infrastructure damage and insurance costs.
On the radar
- Black Sea Security: Watch for further drone attacks on Russian ports like Novorossiysk and Rostov-on-Don, which could further disrupt the 1.75 Mt/month export floor predicted by Rusagrotrans.
- Chinese Buying: Following the WASDE report, monitor Chinese tender activity for US soybeans. Kpler analysts suggest China may take 25 million tonnes of US soybeans if relations hold, clearing space in reserves.
- Brazilian Planting: Early planting of the 2026/27 soybean crop in Mato Grosso is underway; any delays due to dryness could tighten global balance sheets for Q1 2027.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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