Grains: Wheat, Corn and Soybeans Daily — 2026-09-19

Top developments

Soybeans pressured by harvest speed and geopolitical wait

Soybean futures tumbled over 10 cents overnight in mid-September as the market looked ahead to a key Trump-Xi meeting scheduled for the following week. December soybeans closed down less than a penny at $13.19¾ per bushel on September 17, reflecting a broader negative trend for the week driven by advancing U.S. harvest conditions. The market remains sensitive to potential production hiccups in Brazil, which could trigger rallies if weather issues emerge during the planting season.

Black Sea export collapse supports wheat prices

Wheat futures saw gains due to a significant slowdown in Black Sea exports, with combined Russian and Ukrainian shipments estimated at only 8 million tons for July–September, more than halved compared to five-year averages. The International Grains Council (IGC) noted that logistics problems in the Black Sea have pushed global grain and oilseed prices higher, despite a projected 3% drop in world grain production for the 2026/27 marketing year. This supply constraint has kept CBOT wheat settlements firm, closing up 2¼¢ at $7.30 on September 16.

Conab confirms record Brazilian harvest and raises soybean forecast

Brazil’s state agency Conab confirmed the 2025/26 grain harvest as the largest in history, reaching 361.7 million tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous season. Looking ahead, Conab predicts a 0.7% increase in Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean crop, estimating production at 181.64 million metric tons. This robust supply outlook continues to weigh on Chicago soybeans, as global markets absorb the massive South American output.

Corn slips amid harvest pressure and weak export sales

December corn futures closed down 3¾¢ at $5.30½ per bushel on September 17, reflecting persistent pressure from the advancing U.S. harvest. While beef and pork export sales rose due to improved demand from South Korea and Mexico, corn and soybean export sales remained weak, contributing to the downward price action. Analysts note that unless rain delays significantly slow the U.S. harvest, price pressure will likely continue.

Local view

Brazil: Local media highlights the resilience of soybeans in Chicago despite weekly declines for corn and wheat. Agro em Campo reports that November soybeans managed to preserve a small weekly gain, closing near $13, while other grains finished the week in negative territory. Globo Rural notes that soybean prices fell even with increased demand because the primary driver remains the rapid pace of the U.S. harvest.

Argentina: The Argentine press is focused on the potential for a historic influx of foreign currency from the 2026/27 harvest. La Nación reports that despite a 10% lower total production estimate of 155.8 million tons, better prices could drive export revenues to a record $42.2 billion. Additionally, there is growing speculation that Argentina could displace Brazil as the world's second-largest corn exporter, exporting 45 million tons compared to Brazil's 42 million, as Brazilian corn is increasingly absorbed by domestic bioethanol and livestock sectors.

Context & numbers

• CBOT Settlements (Sept 17): December Corn: $5.30½ (-3¾¢); November Soybeans: $13.19¾ (-<1¢); December Wheat: Data not explicitly stated for Sept 17 close in snippet, but Sept 16 close was $7.30 (+2¼¢).
• Brazil Production: 2025/26 Total Grain: 361.7 million tons (Record); 2026/27 Soybean Forecast: 181.64 million tons (+0.7% YoY).
• Black Sea Exports: July–September combined Russia/Ukraine wheat exports: ~8 million tons (lowest for first three months of season in years).
• Argentine Exports: Agricultural exports reached a historical record of 80.7 million tons through August, up 12.5% year-on-year.

On the radar

• Trump-Xi Meeting: Traders are closely watching the upcoming meeting between former President Trump and President Xi, anticipated to influence soybean demand sentiment and potential trade deals.
• Midwest Rainfall: Heavy rains are forecast for Iowa, Wisconsin, and parts of Illinois and Indiana through mid-next week, which could slow the U.S. harvest and provide short-term support to grain prices.
• Russian Port Closures: Continued disruptions and closures in Azov-Black Sea ports are forcing Russian grain exporters to reroute via northwestern ports, creating logistical bottlenecks and sustaining wheat premiums.