Grains: Wheat, Corn and Soybeans Daily — 2026-09-12
The USDA’s September WASDE report, released on September 11, raised US soybean production estimates while lowering corn yields and ending stocks, triggering a sharp sell-off in soybean futures and mixed reactions in corn and wheat. Concurrently, Black Sea wheat exports have plummeted due to logistical disruptions and attacks, with Russian shipments falling drastically in early September, supporting global price floors despite US bearishness.
Grains: Wheat, Corn and Soybeans Daily — 2026-09-12
Top developments
USDA September WASDE: Soybeans Down, Corn Stocks Tighten
On September 11, the USDA released its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), which contrarianly raised the US soybean crop estimate while lowering corn yield and ending stocks. The higher soybean production estimate caused November soybean futures to tumble over 13 cents overnight, breaking below the $13.00/bushel level as traders reacted to the increased supply outlook. Conversely, the reduction in corn ending stocks provided a floor for corn prices, although profit-taking ahead of the report had already pressured markets earlier in the week.
Black Sea Wheat Exports Collapse Due to Logistics and Security
Russian wheat exports have suffered a dramatic decline, with shipments in early September reported to be down by a factor of 6.5 compared to previous periods, according to Russian media reports citing logistics bottlenecks and port disruptions. The "Rusagrotrans" analytical center forecasts that Russian monthly wheat exports could drop below 2 million tonnes in September, a decrease of nearly three times year-on-year levels due to attacks on ports and insurance costs. This supply tightness from the Black Sea region continues to support European and French wheat prices, which are gaining competitiveness in North African markets despite the recent dip in Chicago futures.
US Wheat Export Sales Hit Marketing Year Low
USDA data released on September 9 showed that US wheat export sales for the week ending September 3 fell to a marketing year low, driven by cancellations and slow demand from regular buyers. Analysts note that US wheat remains relatively high-priced compared to competing origins, particularly as Black Sea discounts fluctuate with geopolitical risk premiums. This weak sales data contributed to December CBOT wheat closing down 18.25 cents at $7.28 3/4/bu on September 9, reflecting a lack of bullish catalysts outside of broader market trends.
Brazilian Farmers Accelerate 2026/27 Soybean Pre-Sales
In Brazil, improved domestic and international pricing has unlocked a surge in pre-sales for the upcoming 2026/27 soybean crop, with producers having already sold 29.1% of their future harvest. This aggressive hedging activity reflects confidence in price levels despite the recent volatility in Chicago following the USDA report. The USDA also revised its forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 corn crop upward, signaling a robust supply outlook for South American corn that competes directly with US exports.
Local view
Argentina: Record Export Volumes and BCR Forecasts Argentine media highlights a historic year for grain exports, with total shipments of major agricultural products exceeding 80.7 million tonnes between January and August, the highest volume ever recorded. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario - BCR) updated its estimates on September 10, increasing the expected wheat production by 500,000 tonnes and projecting corn planting area to rise by 200,000 hectares. Local analysts note that corn is gaining ground over soybean acreage expectations for the coming campaign, driven by competitive global prices.
Context & numbers
- CBOT Settlements (Sept 9): Dec Corn closed at $5.27 3/4 (-5.75 cents), Nov Soybeans at $13.09 1/2 (-6.75 cents), and Dec Chicago Wheat at $7.28 3/4 (-18.25 cents).
- Wheat Price Quotes: French milling wheat FOB Paris is trading near €350/t, while German feed wheat EXW is around €230–235/t, reflecting the premium over Black Sea origins.
- Brazilian Soybean Exports: ANEC estimates indicate Brazilian soybean exports are running at approximately 10.56 MMT, a slight weekly reduction that marginally improves the competitive position of US Gulf soybeans.
On the radar
- October WASDE: The next major USDA supply and demand report is scheduled for October 9, 2026, where final harvest data will likely confirm or adjust the September revisions.
- Black Sea Logistics: Watch for further details on the proposed Turkish mechanism for resuming Black Sea grain exports, which could alleviate supply fears if implemented.
- Chinese Buying: Traders are monitoring Chinese state reserve auctions and purchase announcements, as Kpler analysts expect China to take up to 25 million tonnes of US soybeans under current trade relations.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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