Grains: Wheat, Corn and Soybeans Daily — 2026-10-25
Soybean futures rebounded on robust Chinese export sales, while corn and wheat faced pressure from U.S. harvest progress and shifting Black Sea logistics. Argentina emerged as a record corn exporter, and Brazil’s USDA attaché projected a massive 184 million tonne soybean crop for 2026/27.
Grains: Wheat, Corn and Soybeans Daily — 2026-10-25
Top developments
Soybeans Rally on Chinese Demand, Corn and Wheat Slip
On October 22, CBOT soybean futures rose 0.32% to $12.57 a bushel, breaking a nine-session losing streak driven by strong USDA export sales data showing significant Chinese purchasing. Despite this rally, corn and wheat futures fell; Dec. corn closed at $4.56 (down 4.5 cents) and Dec. Chicago wheat at $6.25 (up only 0.25 cent), reflecting continued pressure from rapid U.S. harvest progress and ample global supply. The divergence highlights the market's sensitivity to specific export destinations versus broad harvest pressures.
Argentina’s Corn Exports Surge to Record Projections
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario) projected record corn exports of 45 million tonnes for the 2025/26 campaign, a 67% increase over historical averages for October shipments. This surge is attributed to logistical bottlenecks in the Black Sea and reduced exportable supply from Brazil and the U.S., allowing Argentina to capture significant market share. Argentine corn shipments reached 39 million tonnes in registered sales, positioning the country as a dominant global supplier.
USDA Attaché Forecasts Record Brazilian Soybean Crop
A USDA foreign agricultural attaché projected Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean harvest at 184 million tonnes, reinforcing expectations of ample global supply. This outlook aligns with Conab’s earlier forecasts of increased soybean and corn exports for the next season, driven by robust domestic demand from the biofuel sector. The projection puts downward pressure on long-term soybean prices as the market anticipates a bumper Brazilian crop.
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Black Sea Logistics Disrupt Wheat and Corn Markets
Wheat prices experienced their longest sustained decline in nearly 30 years, with global markets reacting to disrupted Black Sea export routes. Russia is increasingly relying on Baltic and Far East ports, as well as containerized shipments, to bypass Black Sea risks, while Ukrainian export infrastructure remains under threat. These logistical shifts have caused Italian wheat prices to rise 24% and corn prices to increase 17% due to supply constraints, illustrating the regional impact of Black Sea instability.
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Local view
Brazil (Globo Rural): Local analysts note that while soybean prices are attempting a recovery in Chicago, the domestic Brazilian market is stabilizing with corn exports lagging behind expectations. Producers are prioritizing planting over selling as they await clearer price signals, with Abiove projecting a record crushing volume of 66 million tonnes for 2027.
Argentina (La Nación/El Litoral): Argentine media highlights the "record veranito" (summer boom) in corn exports, crediting logistical advantages over Black Sea competitors. The Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario also estimated the local wheat harvest at 23.8 million tonnes, the second-highest in 17 years, despite concerns over atypical October weather.
Context & numbers
- CBOT Futures (Oct 23 close): Dec. Corn $4.56 (-4.5c); Nov. Soybeans $12.565 (+3.5c); Dec. Wheat $6.25 (+0.25c).
- Soybean Sales: USDA reported weekly soybean sales of 2.84 million tonnes, with China accounting for approximately 77% of the volume.
- Argentine Corn: Projected exports of 45 million tonnes for 2025/26; October shipments potentially reaching 3.9 million tonnes.
- Brazilian Soybean Forecast: 184 million tonnes for 2026/27 (USDA Attaché).
- Italian Grain Prices: Wheat +24%, Corn +17% due to Black Sea export disruptions.
On the radar
- USDA WASDE Report: The next major supply and demand report is scheduled for November 10, 2026, which will provide updated global stock estimates.
- El Niño Impact: Meteorological forecasts suggest El Niño conditions may boost Argentine soybean and corn yields while threatening production in Brazil and Australia, potentially reshaping South American supply dynamics.
- CFTC Positioning: Traders are monitoring the Commitments of Traders report for shifts in managed money net-long positions in corn and soybeans following recent price volatilities.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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