Gulf Stocks: Tadawul TASI, DFM, ADX and QSE Daily — October 4, 2026
Gulf bourses closed mixed this week as Saudi Arabia's TASI rebounded 0.78% on Sunday after seven sessions of decline, while Dubai and Abu Dhabi slipped on mixed US-Iran diplomatic signals. Oil pipeline recovery and foreign investor positioning drove sentiment, with crude near $100.50 and foreign holdings in Saudi equities reaching $115.28 billion.
Gulf Stocks: Tadawul TASI, DFM, ADX and QSE Daily — October 4, 2026
Top developments
Saudi TASI Bounces After Week of Losses
Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) closed Sunday, September 29 with a gain of 0.78%, adding 82.96 points to reach 10,681.84 points, ending seven consecutive sessions of decline. However, the index surrendered gains mid-week: on October 1 (Tuesday), TASI fell 0.46%, signaling persistent caution among investors over oil supply security and escalating US-Iran tensions. The bounce reflects easing concerns following Saudi Arabia's announcement that it has raised East-West pipeline flows above 80% capacity, restoring a critical export route.
UAE Equities Slip on Hormuz Diplomacy Uncertainty
Abu Dhabi's ADX fell 0.716% and Dubai's DFM dropped 0.506% on October 1, as crude settled near $100.50 per barrel. Investors remained cautious watching US signals on Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, creating a seesaw pattern between relief over restored Saudi flows and anxiety over unresolved geopolitical tensions. Trading volumes in UAE local markets exceeded 1.7 billion dirhams mid-week, with selective buying in bank stocks offsetting broader caution.
Foreign Ownership in Saudi Equities Reaches $115.28 Billion
As of end-September 2026, total foreign investor holdings in the Saudi Exchange climbed to 432.28 billion Saudi riyals, equivalent to $115.28 billion USD. This milestone underscores sustained international appetite despite recent volatility, signaling confidence in long-term Gulf equity valuations. The strong foreign positioning provides a stabilizing floor for the TASI amid oil price swings and regional tensions.
Gulf Central Banks Hold Rates Steady as Fed Rate Cycle Stabilizes
Saudi Arabia's central bank (SAMA) maintained its repo rate at 4.50% following the Federal Reserve's September 16 hike to 3.75%–4.00%, with the riyal peg ensuring automatic alignment. UAE, Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar similarly held or stabilized rates to reflect Fed decisions. This monetary stability, combined with oil price recovery above $100, has begun to ease pressure on bank equity valuations and corporate financing costs across the region.
IPO Pipeline Faces Extended Drought as Bankers Chase Emerging Markets
The Gulf's IPO market remains subdued, with dealmakers now hunting for transaction fees in Egypt, Turkey, and India as local listings dry up. Analysts flagged that recovery is still expected later in 2026 and into 2027, but bankers who expanded teams during the 2023–2024 boom are now seeking opportunities elsewhere to maintain revenues.
Local view
Arabic-language media highlighted the TASI's recovery narrative as pivotal. Al Arabiya reported the index bounce as a "rebound after seven sessions of decline," emphasizing investor relief over pipeline repairs. Al Bayan focused on selective buying in bank stocks across UAE markets, noting that 1.7 billion dirhams in turnover reflected cautious but active positioning. Al Borsa (the Saudi bourse newspaper) reported Sunday's open on a positive note, citing improved US jobs data reducing Fed rate-hike anxieties. Independent Arabia underscored that while the TASI had posted its worst September close since January 2026 (at 10,441 points on September 30), leading names like Saudi Aramco and Al-Rajhi Bank were showing selective strength, attracting defensive buying.
Context & numbers
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| TASI (Sept 29 close) | 10,681.84 | +0.78% (ended 7-session losing streak) |
| TASI (Oct 1 close) | 10,681–10,635 range | −0.46% retreat mid-week |
| ADX (Oct 1 close) | Down 0.716% | Hormuz talks uncertainty |
| DFM (Oct 1 close) | Down 0.506% | Selective bank buying; 1.7B AED volume |
| Brent Crude | ~$100.50/bbl | Near-term support; pipeline recovery key |
| Foreign Holdings (Saudi Ex.) | $115.28 billion USD | (432.28B SAR) as of Sept 30, 2026 |
| SAMA Repo Rate | 4.50% | Held post-Fed September hike |
| Fed Target Range | 3.75%–4.00% | Set Sept 16; Gulf CBs followed |
On the radar
- US-Iran Hormuz Talks: Ongoing diplomatic signals remain the week's key sentiment driver. Any escalation or breakthrough will likely trigger oil-linked repricing across Gulf equities.
- Saudi Pipeline Capacity Watch: East-West pipeline is now flowing above 80%, but full capacity restoration could take days to weeks. Further gains would ease the oil premium currently supporting market sentiment.
- Gulf IPO Revival Forecast: Analysts project activity rebound in Q4 2026 and 2027. Watch for CMA approvals and early-stage regulatory announcements from the Saudi Exchange and UAE authorities.
- Foreign Investor Flows: The $115.28 billion foreign holding figure marks a stabilization point. Tracking weekly foreign net flows will signal whether the bounce is durable or a tactical rebound ahead of renewed selling.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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