Iron Ore, Coal and Steel: SGX, Dalian, Newcastle — 2026-09-10
Iron ore prices surged above US$100 per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) and SGX, driven by position unwinds and expectations of pre-holiday restocking in China, despite falling steel output. Meanwhile, China’s state-backed buyer CMRG has directed mills to pause negotiations with Rio Tinto for September shipments, signaling a shift in purchasing power.
Iron Ore, Coal and Steel: SGX, Dalian, Newcastle — 2026-09-10
Top developments
Dalian and SGX Iron Ore Break US$100 on Restocking Hopes
On Monday, September 7, iron ore futures moved back above US$100 a tonne, marking the first time in seven weeks the benchmark breached this level. The rise was fueled by traders unwinding short positions in favor of coking coal and growing hopes for pre-holiday restocking in China ahead of the National Day holiday. This movement occurred despite a backdrop of weakening steel demand, with high freight costs also providing support to the price floor.
China’s CMRG Pauses Rio Tinto Purchases for September
China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), the state-backed iron ore buyer, has directed some domestic steel mills to halt negotiations with Rio Tinto for September shipments. This directive, which appears to be taking effect in early September, escalates efforts to centralize procurement and gain leverage in contract negotiations. The move has impacted market sentiment, contributing to volatility in iron ore prices and affecting Rio Tinto’s share performance relative to peers like BHP and Fortescue.
DCE Adjusts Price Limits to Curb Speculation
Effective from the trading session on September 9, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) adjusted the daily opening volume limits for iron ore futures contracts. This regulatory move aims to curb excessive speculation and stabilize market volatility following recent price swings. The adjustment reflects the exchange's ongoing effort to manage risk in a market characterized by sharp movements driven by both fundamental supply-demand shifts and speculative trading flows.
Chinese Steel Output Declines Amid High Imports
Chinese steel output fell by 3.6% year-on-year in recent data, reflecting weak downstream demand despite record iron ore imports. Iron ore imports for the first seven months of the year reached 736.84 million tonnes, creating a divergence between raw material accumulation and finished product production. This imbalance has pressured steel mill margins and contributed to mixed signals for iron ore pricing, where inventory buildup supports prices while low output caps upside potential.
Local view
Brazilian media outlets are closely monitoring the impact of these global shifts on local miners. Infomoney reported that Dalian iron ore contracts saw gains amid falling shipments, with the most traded contract rising to US$110.94 per tonne, its highest level since late July. Valor Econômico noted a slight pullback of 0.27% in Dalian futures on September 9, settling at US$110.8, as traders assessed the balance between strong Chinese buying interest and rising port inventories.
Context & numbers
- Iron Ore Price: Benchmarks hovered near US$100–US$110/tonne during the week of September 7–9, 2026.
- China Steel Output: Declined 3.6% year-on-year, highlighting the disconnect between input costs and end-product demand.
- Import Volumes: China imported 736.84 million tonnes of iron ore in the first seven months of 2026, maintaining high levels of stock accumulation.
On the radar
- National Day Restocking: Traders are watching for actual restocking volumes from Chinese mills leading up to the National Day holiday in October, which could provide further price support if demand materializes.
- CMRG Negotiations: The duration and scope of the pause in Rio Tinto negotiations remain a key variable; any resolution or escalation could significantly impact Australian miner revenues and global trade flows.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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