Iron Ore, Coal and Steel: SGX, Dalian, Newcastle — 2026-10-11
Dalian iron ore futures plunged to an 18-month low as Chinese steelmakers reported thin margins and low profitability following the National Day holiday. Simultaneously, Australian miner Fortescue warned that a standoff with China's state-backed buyer CMRG is suppressing sales volumes, while Brazilian exports declined amid rising freight costs and softening prices. <!-- /headline --> **Fortescue Warns China Dispute Is Weighing on Iron Ore Sales** <!-- /headline -->
Iron Ore, Coal and Steel: SGX, Dalian, Newcastle — 2026-10-11
Dalian iron ore futures plunged to an 18-month low as Chinese steelmakers reported thin margins and low profitability following the National Day holiday. Simultaneously, Australian miner Fortescue warned that a standoff with China's state-backed buyer CMRG is suppressing sales volumes, while Brazilian exports declined amid rising freight costs and softening prices.
<!-- /headline -->Fortescue Warns China Dispute Is Weighing on Iron Ore Sales
<!-- /headline -->Top developments
Dalian Iron Ore Hits 18-Month Low on Weak Steel Margins
On October 8, the first trading day after China’s week-long holiday, Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore futures touched their lowest level since June 2025. The decline was driven by weak steel margins, with only 7% of Chinese steelmakers operating at a profit by the end of September. Average daily crude steel output also slid to a six-month low, signaling subdued demand for raw materials despite the post-holiday resumption of trading
Fortescue Sales Drop Amid CMRG Standoff
Australian miner Fortescue reported a 6% year-on-year decline in iron ore sales for the first quarter of FY 2026-27 (July–September), totaling 46.8 million tonnes. The company cited an ongoing standoff with China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) over supply contracts and price negotiations as a key factor disrupting shipments. Realized prices fell to $80 per tonne, and Fortescue shares slid 4.2% in Sydney, dragging down peers BHP and Rio Tinto
Brazil’s September Exports Fall 6.3% on Freight Costs
Brazilian iron ore exports declined by 6.3% month-on-month in September, with shipments to China dropping by 2.6 million tonnes. High freight rates and a 15.1% drop in average export prices pressured margins, leading some miners to reduce operations. The Brazil-to-Asia freight rate surged 76% over the past 12 months to $41.79 per tonne, now consuming nearly 37% of the value of 65% grade ore sold to China
Port Inventories Rise to 152.7 Million Tonnes
Data from Shanghai SteelHome E-Commerce indicated that iron ore reserves at Chinese ports increased to 152.7 million tonnes. This accumulation of supply, exceeding immediate demand, contributed to the third consecutive weekly decline in prices, with Dalian contracts falling to 682.5 yuan per tonne by October 9
Local view
Chinese media and analysts note that the post-holiday market opened with significant pressure due to ample port inventories and lackluster downstream steel consumption. MySteel (Mysteel) highlighted that the "Golden September" season failed to materialize in steel demand, leading to a sharp correction in raw material prices. Local reports emphasize that only a small fraction of mills remained profitable, forcing many to maintain production cuts or schedule maintenance
Context & numbers
- Dalian Iron Ore Price: Fell to 682.5 yuan/tonne on Oct 9, the lowest since April 2025
- SGX/Iron Ore Spot: Prices extended declines to multi-month lows, with spot prices hovering around $91/tonne
- Fortescue Q1 FY27 Sales: 46.8 million tonnes (-6% YoY); Realized price $80/tonne
- China Port Inventory: 152.7 million tonnes
- Steel Profitability: Only 7% of Chinese steelmakers were profitable at end-September
- Global Crude Steel Output: August 2026 global output was 144.2 million tonnes, down 1.2% year-on-year
On the radar
- UBS Forecast: Analysts expect BHP and Rio Tinto to report stronger shipment volumes for the September quarter (BHP ~75mt, Rio ~86mt), which could further weigh on prices if demand does not recover
- Freight Rates: Continued volatility in Brazil-Asia freight costs remains a key risk for Vale’s margins and export competitiveness
- Coal Trends: Newcastle thermal coal prices have gained 1.33% over the past four weeks, diverging from the iron ore trend
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
Powered by
