Iron Ore, Coal and Steel: SGX, Dalian, Newcastle — 2026-09-19
Iron ore prices in Dalian and Singapore rose on September 17 as Chinese steelmakers engaged in pre-holiday restocking ahead of the National Day break, though weak steel margins and property sector downturns capped gains. Meanwhile, the Australian Financial Review reported that iron ore's recent rally has fizzled due to structural demand weakness, while shipping costs have surged to comprise 40% of the commodity's price, squeezing miner margins.
Iron Ore, Coal and Steel: SGX, Dalian, Newcastle — 2026-09-19
Top developments
Dalian Iron Ore Rises on Pre-Holiday Restocking
On Thursday, September 17, iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) rose for a second consecutive session, closing at 711 yuan ($105.94) per metric ton, a 0.35% gain. This uptick was driven by Chinese steelmakers stepping up purchases of seaborne cargoes to build inventories before the upcoming National Day holiday. However, analysts noted that shrinking mill margins and weak real steel demand limited the extent of the price recovery, preventing a breakout above recent resistance levels.
Shipping Costs Surge to 40% of Iron Ore Price
Brazilian media reported on September 17 that maritime freight costs have risen to constitute approximately 40% of the final price of iron ore, significantly pressuring mining companies like Vale and CSN Mineração. This surge in logistics costs is eroding profit margins for exporters, even as spot prices remain volatile. The high freight component makes Brazilian shipments less competitive compared to Australian alternatives when global demand softens, adding a new layer of complexity to supply chain economics.
AFR: Iron Ore Rally Fizzles Amid Property Downturn
The Australian Financial Review published an analysis on September 16 stating that iron ore prices remain under pressure because China’s property sector downturn and rising export barriers are structurally limiting demand. Analysts expect the commodity to struggle to sustain rallies above $100 per tonne as weak Chinese consumption meets rising global supply. This sentiment contrasts with the short-term restocking bump, suggesting that the medium-term outlook for miners remains cautious.
Local view
Valor Econômico (Brazil) Brazilian financial outlet Valor Econômico reported on September 17 that despite the 0.28% rise in Dalian iron ore, analysts emphasize that underlying demand remains moderate. The outlet highlighted that low end-user consumption and widespread losses among Chinese steel mills are fueling expectations for production cuts, which could weigh on future import volumes from Brazil.
Phoenix Net (China) Local Chinese media reported on September 18 that the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) issued a notice adjusting price limit ranges and margin requirements for various futures contracts to manage risk during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. Starting September 23, adjustments will apply to contracts including ethylene glycol, reflecting the exchange's proactive stance on volatility during the long break.
Context & numbers
- Dalian Futures: Closed at 711 yuan/mt ($105.94) on Sept 17.
- Shipping Costs: Now represent ~40% of iron ore price for Brazilian exports.
- Newcastle Coal: The benchmark Newcastle 6000 thermal coal price was observed at $146.75 per metric ton on September 12.
- Australian Exports: Pilbara Ports reported total iron ore exports of 759.4 million tonnes for the fiscal year ending June 2026, a 4% increase year-on-year.
On the radar
- DCE Margin Adjustments: Traders should monitor the implementation of new margin requirements starting September 23, which may affect liquidity and volatility during the holiday period.
- Rio Tinto Purchase Freeze: Reports continue to circulate regarding China Merchants Resources Group (CMRG) directing steel mills to halt negotiations with Rio Tinto, a move that could shift market share toward other suppliers if enforced strictly through September.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
Powered by
