Iron Ore, Coal and Steel: SGX, Dalian, Newcastle — 2026-10-15
Iron ore futures on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) and Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) breached critical psychological levels this week, with SGX contracts falling below $90 per tonne for the first time since 2024. The decline is driven by a confluence of weak Chinese steel demand, rising global supply from Guinea’s Simandou project, and elevated port inventories in China. Meanwhile, Australian miner Fortescue reported a sales slump due to a standoff with China’s state buyer, while Rio Tinto cited fuel cost advantages for Australian exports.
Iron Ore, Coal and Steel: SGX, Dalian, Newcastle — 2026-10-15
SGX Iron Ore Breaks Two-Year Low Below $90
On October 15, 2026, iron ore futures traded on the Singapore Exchange slipped below $90 a tonne, reaching their lowest level in more than two years. This breach marks a significant milestone, reflecting persistent concerns over soft demand in China’s construction sector and an oversupplied global market. The drop extends a weekly retreat, with analysts pointing to the ramp-up of supply from Guinea’s Simandou project as a key pressure point on prices.
Dalian Futures Hit 18-Month Low Amid Thin Steel Margins
Dalian iron ore futures touched an 18-month low on October 8, the first trading day after China’s National Day holiday, as weak steel margins dampened demand prospects. By mid-October, prices continued to slide, with the most-traded contract falling toward CNY 680 per tonne, near four-year lows. Only 7% of Chinese steelmakers were operating at a profit by the end of September, while daily crude steel output slid to a six-month low, severely limiting raw material purchasing appetite.
Fortescue Sales Drop 6% Due to China Buyer Standoff
Australian miner Fortescue reported that its third-quarter iron ore sales fell 6% year-on-year to 46.8 million tonnes, with realized prices dropping to $80 per tonne. The decline is attributed to an ongoing standoff with China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), China’s central purchasing agency, which has disrupted shipments and price negotiations. Fortescue shares slid 4.2% in Sydney, dragging down peers BHP and Rio Tinto, although the company maintained its annual shipment forecast.
Rio Tinto Q3 Sales Beat Forecasts; Fuel Costs Favor Australia
Rio Tinto announced that its third-quarter Pilbara iron ore sales rose 2% year-on-year to 85.7 million tonnes, surpassing analyst expectations of 84.4 million tonnes. The company maintained its full-year guidance of 323–338 million tonnes. Rio Tinto executives noted that high global fuel costs are tilting the market in Australia’s favor, as competitors with longer shipping routes from Brazil and Africa are curbing marginal production to protect margins.
Chinese Steel Inventory Rebounds; Exports Rise Slightly
Data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) showed that social inventory of five major steel products rose by 2.7% in early October to 9.39 million tonnes, reversing a previous downtrend. This inventory build-up signals weak downstream absorption despite post-holiday restocking attempts. Conversely, China’s steel exports reached 10.49 million tonnes in September, up 3.3% month-on-month, though January–September exports remained down 2.6% year-on-year.
Local view
Chinese financial media highlighted the disconnect between supply pressures and demand weakness. Sina Finance reported that rebar futures for January delivery fell 0.52% to 3,073 yuan/tonne, with spot prices also declining, indicating that post-holiday restocking was less robust than anticipated. Analysts at Everbright Futures noted that while inventory levels are high, production cuts at some mills are beginning to provide limited support to prices.
In Brazil, Valor Econômico tracked the impact of these trends on Vale, noting that Dalian futures fell 0.81% to close at US$100.7 per tonne (converted basis), reflecting the direct correlation between Chinese futures and Brazilian export pricing expectations. Local reports emphasize that abundant global supply and lower freight rates are compounding the pressure on exporters.
Context & numbers
- SGX Iron Ore Price: Fell below $90/tonne on Oct 15, a two-year low.
- Dalian Iron Ore Futures: Trading near CNY 680/tonne, approaching four-year lows.
- China Port Inventories: Iron ore stocks at Chinese ports increased to 152.7 million tonnes, exceeding demand.
- Fortescue Q3 Sales: 46.8 Mt (-6% YoY); Realized price $80/t.
- Rio Tinto Q3 Sales: 85.7 Mt (+2% YoY).
- Newcastle Thermal Coal: Closed at $150.35/tonne on Oct 14, up 42% YoY but flat day-on-day.
- India Iron Ore Exports: Dropped 67.2% in September to 0.7 Mt, a near four-year low.
On the radar
- Simandou Ramp-up: Market participants are closely watching shipment data from Guinea’s Simandou project, which is expected to add significant volume to the global market in Q4, potentially further depressing prices.
- Fortescue-CMRG Negotiations: Any resolution or escalation in the standoff between Fortescue and China’s CMRG will likely cause immediate volatility in ASX mining stocks and spot iron ore pricing.
- Winter Demand Season: Traditional restocking season for coal and steel in Northern Hemisphere winter months begins in November; analysts note that historical patterns suggest November–January is often a stronger stretch for iron ore, which could provide a floor if policy stimulus emerges.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
Powered by
