Latin American FX: Real, Peso and Andean Currencies — 2026-09-13
Latin American currencies faced a volatile week driven by diverging global monetary policy expectations, with the Brazilian Real weakening on political risk while the Mexican Peso held firm near 17.00 against the dollar. Argentina's blue dollar gap widened slightly as the BCRA struggled to accumulate reserves, and Colombia's peso strengthened despite a drop in oil prices.
Latin American FX: Real, Peso and Andean Currencies — 2026-09-13
Top developments
Brazil’s Real Weakens on Political Tension and Fed Fears
On Friday, September 11, the Brazilian Real closed at 5.1264 per US dollar, weakening as the Ibovespa fell 0.56%. The currency faced pressure from renewed Supreme Court tensions and market anxiety over potential US interest rate hikes, which narrowed the carry trade appeal of the Real. Earlier in the week, Valor Econômico reported that the Real had briefly stood out for its strength amid global risk aversion, but this momentum faded as domestic electoral disputes entered the radar.
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Mexican Peso Holds Near 17.00 Amid Tariff Threats
The Mexican Peso firmed slightly to 16.966 per dollar on Friday, September 11, showing resilience despite global volatility. El Financiero noted that the peso "scratched" at 17 units due to new tariff threats, yet managed to appreciate by 0.17% to close at 16.9705. The currency continues to benefit from the interest rate differential between Banxico (6.5%) and the Federal Reserve (3.5%), supporting the carry trade.
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Argentina’s Blue Dollar Gap Widens as Reserves Stall
Argentina's parallel "blue" dollar rose, pushing the gap with the official rate above 2%, reversing a recent compression. The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) purchased only US$6 million in the market, a mere 1% of volume, leading to a US$111 million drop in reserves. This stagnation in reserve accumulation raises questions about the sustainability of the current exchange rate regime as the blue dollar hit its fourth weekly rise in a month.
Colombian Peso Strengthens Despite Oil Weakness
Colombia's Peso strengthened against the dollar on Friday, even as the COLCAP index fell 1.41% and oil prices weakened. The divergence suggests that local factors or specific flows may be offsetting the typical commodity-linked depreciation pressure usually seen when Brent crude declines. The European Central Bank's recent rate hike also contributed to a mixed global environment where LatAm currencies moved in different directions.
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Local view
In Brazil, Valor Econômico highlighted that the weekly foreign exchange flow saw its worst outflow of 2026, totaling negative US$7.511 billion between August 31 and September 4, which justified the Central Bank's "casadão" (large intervention) auctions. Meanwhile, Infomoney reported that the dollar decoupled from external markets to close slightly lower, driven by the focus on the electoral race, specifically polls showing Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula in a hypothetical runoff. In Mexico, El Financiero described the peso as "serene" ahead of the 2027 Economic Package delivery, with markets watching growth projections closely.
Context & numbers
- BRL: Closed at 5.1264/USD on Sept 11; Weekly FX outflow was US$7.511 billion
- MXN: Closed at 16.966/USD on Sept 11; Interest rate differential is 300bps (Banxico 6.5% vs Fed 3.5%)
- ARS: Official rate ~1,510/USD; Blue dollar gap >2%; BCRA purchases ~US$6 million daily
- Global: ECB raised rates; Oil jumped >8% earlier in the week but softened by Friday, impacting COP
On the radar
- Mexico: Market awaits the release of Banxico minutes for further guidance on the 6.5% rate hold.
- Argentina: Watch for BCRA reserve accumulation trends; the central bank recently broke a 27-day streak of net purchases.
- Brazil: Monitor the impact of the "Master case" secrecy lift on investor sentiment and potential further BCB interventions given the heavy outflows.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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