Lira and CEE FX: Turkish Lira, Zloty, Forint — 2026-10-09

Top developments

Turkey: CPI Surprise Opens Door for TCMB Rate Cut

Turkish inflation data released in early October showed September Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures falling below the 30% year-on-year threshold, with softer month-on-month gains. This surprise disinflation has led analysts at Commerzbank to predict that the TCMB will cut interest rates by 100 basis points in its upcoming meeting, signaling a potential pivot from its tight monetary policy stance. Despite this positive signal, local media reports indicate the Lira remains under pressure, with USD/TRY trading near historic highs of 49.22 TL on October 8, driven by global dollar strength and lingering geopolitical risks.

Poland: Zloty Under Pressure as USD/PLN Nears 4.00

The Polish Zloty weakened significantly this week, with the US Dollar approaching the psychological barrier of 4.00 PLN. Business Insider Poland highlights that the currency is being squeezed by two main factors: uncertainty surrounding the government’s budget plan and an unclear trajectory for interest rates from the National Bank of Poland (NBP). The NBP’s recent communications suggest it is not inclined to tighten policy rapidly, which, combined with broader European debt market volatility, has kept the Zloty soft against major currencies.

Hungary: Forint Strengthens on Geopolitical De-escalation

In contrast to its peers, the Hungarian Forint gained ground during the first week of October, particularly against the Euro and the Dollar. Portfolio.hu reports that the Forint benefited from news regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a subsequent drop in oil prices, which eased import cost pressures for Hungary. By October 8, the EUR/HUF pair had retreated to levels below 367, with the MNB’s recent signals on inflation targeting providing additional support to the currency.

Local view

Local financial media in Turkey emphasized the tension between falling inflation data and the persistent strength of the US Dollar. HaberGo noted that despite the CPI surprise, the TCMB’s net reserves remain a critical watchpoint for market stability ahead of the October 22 rate decision. In Poland, Business Insider Polska pointed out that the "fiscal watchdog" has warned that the minority government’s deficit-cutting plans rely on optimistic economic assumptions, adding a layer of risk premium to the Zloty. Hungarian outlet Pénzcentrum highlighted that the Forint’s recent strength was partly attributed to specific messages from the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) regarding euro adoption timelines and inflation control, which boosted investor confidence.

Context & numbers

According to the European Central Bank’s reference rates for October 6, 2026, the key cross-rates stood at:

• EUR/HUF: 364.95
• EUR/PLN: 4.3650
• USD/TRY: ~49.22 (as of Oct 8 close)
• EUR/TRY: ~55.31

The TCMB held its policy rate at 37% in September, maintaining the overnight lending rate at 40% and the borrowing rate at 35.5%. The ECB’s October 6 data also placed the Czech Koruna at 24.405 CZK per Euro.

On the radar

• TCMB Rate Decision (October 22): Markets are pricing in a 100 bps cut following the CPI data; any deviation could cause sharp volatility in TRY.
• NBP Communications: Investors are watching for further clarity from the National Bank of Poland regarding the timing of potential rate cuts, especially given the budget deficit concerns.
• Oil Price Stability: The Forint’s recent gains are closely tied to oil prices; renewed tensions in the Middle East or issues with the Strait of Hormuz could reverse HUF strength quickly.