Lira and CEE FX: Turkish Lira, Zloty, Forint — 2026-09-21
The Fed's September rate hike to 3.75–4% has hammered CEE currencies: the zloty hit roughly two-year lows against the euro and the dollar, while the Turkish lira broke through an all-time low near 49.65 per dollar on September 18 amid an equity market selloff. The forint staged a dramatic reversal, rebounding to near 362 against the euro after the Fed hike, and now all eyes turn to Tuesday's MNB rate decision. CBRT reserves fell sharply by $5.5 billion, and the central bank unveiled new lira liquidity measures. <!-- headline --> Lira hits record low, zloty two-year trough — while the forint stuns the Fed-driven selloff <!-- /headline -->
Lira and CEE FX: Turkish Lira, Zloty, Forint — 2026-09-21
The Fed's September rate hike to 3.75–4% has hammered CEE currencies: the zloty hit roughly two-year lows against the euro and the dollar, while the Turkish lira broke through an all-time low near 49.65 per dollar on September 18 amid an equity market selloff. The forint staged a dramatic reversal, rebounding to near 362 against the euro after the Fed hike, and now all eyes turn to Tuesday's MNB rate decision. CBRT reserves fell sharply by $5.5 billion, and the central bank unveiled new lira liquidity measures.
Top developments
Turkish lira prints record low near 49.65 amid stock market crash
On September 18 the lira fell to a new all-time low of about 49.65 per dollar, and has lost more than 17% of its value since the start of the year. The milestone came against the backdrop of an equity market selloff and the dollar's global strength after the Fed. Continued passive depreciation pressure sets the tone for Daily TRY and keeps focus on CBRT reserve depletion and possible liquidity steps.
CBRT steps in with three new lira liquidity measures, reserves drop $5.5 billion
On September 17 the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye announced three new measures targeting lira liquidity following financial market developments. In the week to September 11, gross total reserves fell by $5.523 billion, from $184.247 billion to $178.724 billion. Rapid reserve burn alongside record-low TRY means intervention capacity is a key watch item for the coming weeks.
Fed hikes 25bp to 3.75–4%; dollar surges, EM capital flees
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75–4% range on September 16, sending the dollar higher. Immediately after the decision, on the evening of September 16, the dollar traded at 48.65 against the lira, euro/TL at 55.97 and sterling/TL at 65.32. Polish economists describe capital flight from emerging markets as a "knockout" for the zloty. The Fed pivot is the dominant cross-cutting driver for TRY, PLN and HUF carry normalization.
Zloty at roughly two-year lows as Fed lifting pressures EM currencies
The Polish zloty sharply underperformed on September 16, falling close to a two-year low against the euro. By September 18 NBP reference rates showed the euro back at 4.36 PLN and the dollar the most expensive since July. Gazeta's investment section notes PLN is the weakest against the dollar since 2024, blaming the stronger USD. With the Fed hiking, pressure is on the NBP to defend credibility at the PLN's expense.
MNB rate decision and possible inflation-target change looms on Tuesday
The Hungarian forint staged a dramatic rebound: after the Fed hike pushed the euro toward 365, the forint surged back to near 362.5 Thursday, hitting a near two-month high against the zloty. The MNB Monetary Council meets Tuesday, September 22, where it may even cut the inflation target — a potentially "revolutionary" decision that would directly affect the HUF rate — after three straight months of 25bp cuts totaling 75bp. Monday morning the forint strengthened with the euro near 363 and the dollar at 316.24 HUF.
Local view
Polish financial media is blunt. Gazeta's investment desk quotes economists calling the situation a "knockout" and "the zloty on the operating table," with capital fleeing EM after the first Fed hike in three years. In Hungary, Pénzcentrum leads with the MNB's imminent move — whether the bank pauses its cutting cycle (inflation at just 1.3%) and possibly modifies the inflation target — as the deciding factor for the forint this week. Turkish outlets focus on liquidity: HaberGo tracks TCMB exchange-rate lists and BAP market spreads ahead of Fed decisions.
Context & numbers
- USD/TRY: record low of ~49.65 on September 18; down more than 17% YTD
- USD/TRY 48.65, EUR/TRY 55.97 post-Fed on September 16
- CBRT total reserves: $178.724 billion, down $5.523 billion week-over-week
- NBP rates September 14: USD/PLN 3.7607, EUR/PLN 4.3391, CHF/PLN 4.5926
- EUR/HUF: around 362.5–363 after the forint's rebound; dollar at 316.24 HUF on Monday
- Fed policy rate: raised 25bp to 3.75–4% on September 16
On the radar
- MNB Monetary Council decision Tuesday, September 22: rate path pause and a possible lowering of the inflation target could reshape HUF expectations
- CBRT lira liquidity measures announced September 17 — watch for implementation details and further reserve prints
- Turkish equity market stress: whether the stock selloff that accompanied the lira's record low abates
- Index.hu flags Finance Minister Varga standing before an important decision and "new danger" forming on markets — worth watching for fiscal-policy signals out of Budapest
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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