Lira and CEE FX: Turkish Lira, Zloty, Forint — 2026-09-25
The Turkish lira hit yet another all-time low near 49.65 per dollar as TCMB reserves fell by over $4 billion in the week of September 18 and the Fed's hawkish turn kept pressure on emerging markets. In Budapest, the MNB surprised markets by cutting the inflation target — the first such move since 2005 — briefly lifting the forint before regional weakness reasserted itself. The zloty slid to two-year lows against the euro after a Moody's downgrade and dovish NBP expectations.
Lira and CEE FX: Turkish Lira, Zloty, Forint — 2026-09-25
Top developments
Turkish lira hits new all-time low near 49.65, down 17% YTD
On September 18 the lira touched ~49.65 per dollar, a fresh record low, amid a Turkish stock market slide and persistently strong global dollar demand; the currency has lost over 17% of its value since the start of the year. USD/TRY subsequently pushed further up to 48.67 (record) on September 17 after the Fed's rate hike, per local report — pressure points to more managed-depreciation pain for importers and inflation dynamics.
TCMB reserves plunge $4+ billion to ~174.4bn in week of Sept 18
Turkey's central bank total reserves fell by about $4.2–4.3 billion in the week ending September 18, to 174.4–174.5 billion dollars, reflecting FX sales used to cushion markets — Turkish outlets linked the drop to Borsa İstanbul fund-related losses above 5% on "critical Wednesday" that prompted a direct central bank intervention. Reserve depletion limits intervention capacity and keeps downside risk on TRY.
MNB cuts inflation target — first such move since 2005 — forint spike fades
At its September 22 decision, Hungary's central bank cut the inflation target (effective from 2028), a move not seen since 2005 while also pausing its cautious easing cycle. The forint briefly strengthened, with EUR/HUF dipping below 360, but the rally quickly faded; on September 23 the forint fell to levels unseen since the spring election against the dollar, with the euro above 366 and dollar above 322 forint.
Zloty at two-year lows against the euro after Moody's downgrade
Polish media describe the currency situation as a "knockout": the zloty hit its cheapest level in two years against the euro as capital fled emerging markets following the Fed's first rate hike in three years. On September 24 the euro traded at ~4.39 PLN, with investor retreat from risk assets and the weekend Moody's rating decision weighing on sentiment.
Local view
- Turkish local press: Sözcü reported that TCMB "stepped in directly" on the Wednesday when Borsa İstanbul funds lost over 5%, with bankers estimating significant FX sales to tame volatility; Yeni Ankara and NationalTurk flagged the sharp reserve drawdown to 174.4–174.5 billion dollars.
- Hungarian Portfolio.hu framed the MNB decision as potentially pivotal ("the decision that may determine the forint's fate"), noting analysts expected a pause in rate cuts and even a possible inflation-target cut to support the currency. Pénzcentrum noted that despite Brussels disbursing €4.2 billion in EU funds, the forint still weakened — the dollar and US rate-hike expectations dominating.
- Polish Parkiet wrote that the euro is at its most expensive against the zloty in nearly three years as investors turned away from the domestic currency; Gazeta called it the zloty "on the boards".
Context & numbers
- USD/TRY: record ~48.67 on Sept 17, lira down 17%+ YTD; CBRT policy rate at 37% (held at September meeting).
- TCMB total reserves: 174.4bn USD (week of Sept 18), down ~$4.3bn week-on-week.
- EUR/PLN: ~4.39 on Sept 24 vs ~4.36 on Sept 18 — two-year zloty lows.
- EUR/HUF: crossed above 366, USD/HUF above 322 on Sept 23 — post-election-period lows vs USD; EUR dipped below 360 briefly after the MNB decision.
- EU funds: European Commission disbursed €4.2 billion to Hungary, yet the forint still weakened.
On the radar
- Fitch's fresh analysis of Turkey (published on the day of writing) includes new inflation and USD/TRY end-2026/2027 forecasts; it sees improved reserves and tight policy limiting risks, but persistent political and inflationary pressures.
- TCMB's next (October) PPK rate decision is eagerly awaited domestically; markets are counting down to it after the September hold.
- Forint watch: whether the MNB's small inflation target (from 2028) translates into a durable EUR/HUF floor, against a backdrop of strong global dollar (dollar index near levels since late July, boosted by US yields).
- Zloty: watch any investor reaction/Q&A following the Moody's decision noted by Polish market commentary.
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