Lira and CEE FX: Turkish Lira, Zloty, Forint — 2026-09-24
The Fed's first rate hike since July 2023 sent shockwaves through emerging markets, driving the Turkish lira to a fresh record above 48.67 and pushing the zloty and forint to multi-year lows. Turkey's central bank burned another $4.2 billion of reserves in a single week defending the lira, while the Hungarian central bank delivered a surprise at its Tuesday rate decision that failed to stop the forint's slide despite €4.2 billion in fresh EU funds.
Lira and CEE FX: Turkish Lira, Zloty, Forint — 2026-09-24
Top developments
Lira hits fresh record after Fed hike; TCMB reserves bleed again
The dollar/lira rate climbed to a new all-time high of 48.6750 following the US Federal Reserve's rate hike on September 17 — the Fed's first increase since July 2023, decided unanimously 12–0. The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye's (TCMB) total reserves fell by $4.2 billion in the week of September 18 to $174.5 billion, following a $5.5 billion drop the previous week (from $184.2 billion to $178.7 billion). Cumulatively, roughly $10 billion of reserve losses in two weeks signal heavy FX intervention — a key constraint on how long the TCMB can defend the lira, and a caution flag for TRY carry positions. Local press reported the central bank intervened directly during Borsa Istanbul's sharp losses on the critical Wednesday session, with funds-related losses exceeding 5%.
Market attention now turns to the October rate decision, with the TCMB holding the policy rate at 37% at the September meeting.
Forint slumps to post-election lows despite MNB surprise
The Hungarian forint weakened to its lowest level against the dollar since the election — EUR above 366 and USD above 322 HUF — losing ground against the zloty and koruna as well. The MNB's rate decision on September 22 was the week's key event: analysts had expected the bank to pause its cautious easing cycle and possibly cut its inflation target, which initially supported the currency. But the forint weakened against all major currencies on decision day, and by Wednesday noon EUR/HUF hit 364.4 and USD/HUF 319.3 despite news that the European Commission was disbursing €4.2 billion in EU funds — the strong dollar and US rate-hike expectations overwhelmed the fiscal support.
Earlier in the week, the forint had briefly rebounded after Wednesday's Fed hike, with EUR/HUF falling from around 365 in the morning to 362.2.
Zloty at its cheapest in two years
Following the Fed hike and US/EA rate dynamics, capital fled emerging markets and the Polish zloty lost value sharply — economists described the market as a "knockout" for the currency, with EUR/PLN reaching its weakest zloty in two years and euro at its most expensive in almost three years. On September 17 USD/PLN rose toward 3.80 with NBP rates confirming broad dollar strength. By September 22 EUR/PLN was attacking 4.35 with the pair at 3.80–3.81 territory for USD/PLN. Interia reported the Monetary Policy Council does not plan hikes, removing a key support for the zloty while US euro-area rates rise.
Local view
Turkish financial media (Bigpara) framed the Fed's first hike since July 2023 as the week's dominant driver for USD/TRY, with heavy investor focus on daily FX moves. Sözcü highlighted traders' estimates of the scale of TCMB's direct FX intervention during the Borsa Istanbul sell-off. Hungarian outlets Portfolio.hu and Pénzcentrum emphasized the irony of the forint weakening "despite Brussels' billions" in EU funds, with the MNB decision, a fresh macro forecast and a possible inflation-target revision dominating the local agenda. Polish analyst Krzysztof Kamiński of OANDA TMS Brokers told FXMAG that US–Iran escalation risk remains a key swing factor for USD/PLN after Donald Trump signalled possible escalation at the UN while leaving negotiations open.
Context & numbers
- USD/TRY: record 48.6750
- TCMB reserves: $174.5 billion (week of Sept 18, –$4.2bn), after $178.7 billion (–$5.5bn) the prior week
- TCMB policy rate: 37% (held at September PPK)
- EUR/HUF: above 366; USD/HUF above 322 on Sept 23 — lowest vs. dollar since the election
- EUR/PLN ~4.35; USD/PLN ~3.80 (Sept 22)
- EU funds: €4.2 billion disbursed by the European Commission to Hungary
For reference, the ECB reference rates at end-August stood at CZK 24.083, HUF 360.18 and PLN 4.2955 per euro — meaning all three currencies have weakened notably against the euro in the weeks since.
On the radar
- TCMB October PPK meeting date is the next Turkish rate-decision focal point; markets are watching whether reserve losses force a policy rethink.
- The MNB's fresh macroeconomic forecast and potential inflation-target revision could reshape the forint's path.
- Geopolitics: reports of the Strait of Hormuz reopening briefly lifted regional currencies via lower oil prices; US–Iran escalation risk flagged by analysts remains a live swing factor for USD/PLN and the whole EM FX complex.
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