Lira and CEE FX: Turkish Lira, Zloty, Forint — 2026-09-10
Turkey’s Central Bank (TCMB) is set to announce its September interest rate decision today, with markets pricing in a cautious approach amid persistent inflation and lira depreciation. Meanwhile, the Hungarian forint surged following leaked reports that the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) may halt rate cuts and adjust its inflation target, while the Polish zloty remained stable as the National Bank of Poland (NBP) held rates steady.
Lira and CEE FX: Turkish Lira, Zloty, Forint — 2026-09-10
Top developments
TCMB Rate Decision Expected Today Amid Lira Pressure
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) will announce its September monetary policy decision today, September 10, at 14:00 local time. The policy rate has been held at 37% since July, but recent data shows the lira hitting historic highs against the dollar in early September, prompting intense scrutiny of the bank's next move. Analysts at ING suggest that normalizing liquidity and a lower effective funding rate have pushed market pricing closer to their view for 2026, though disinflation remains uneven. Local media report that the TCMB resumed weekly repo auctions at the 37% rate earlier this month to stabilize funding conditions after regional geopolitical tensions.
Forint Surges on Leaked MNB Policy Shift
The Hungarian forint appreciated significantly after Bloomberg reported that the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) might stop cutting rates in September and lower its inflation target from 3% to 2.5%. This leak caused the EUR/HUF pair to drop from the 366–367 range to near 362 within hours, marking a sharp reversal in sentiment. Index.hu described the leak as coming from a "critical moment," triggering an immediate market turn that strengthened the currency ahead of the MNB's upcoming decision. The move matters as it signals a potential hawkish pivot by the MNB, which had previously cut rates to 5.5% in August, potentially reducing carry-trade appeal but boosting domestic confidence.
NBP Holds Rates; Zloty Stabilizes
The Monetary Policy Council of Poland (RPP) left interest rates unchanged in its September meeting, aligning with widespread expectations. However, Bankier.pl notes that while rates were static, the Council's stance remains ambiguous, with markets still debating the likelihood of future hikes versus cuts. Interia reports that the zloty strengthened against both the euro and dollar, partly driven by global factors including US President Trump’s pressure on the Fed for rate cuts, which weakens the USD globally. The NBP’s official reference rates for early September showed EUR/PLN hovering around 4.32–4.33 PLN, reflecting this stability.
Local view
In Turkey, HaberGo highlighted that the dollar broke all-time records during the Monday (September 7) opening, placing the Central Bank’s policy squarely in the spotlight amidst inflation data releases. Yeni Ankara noted that while expectations for a modest rate cut in September remain, rigid rental and service prices are slowing disinflation, keeping pressure on the lira.
In Hungary, Portfolio.hu emphasized that the "fateful week" for the forint began with inflation data influencing the MNB decision, with the leak causing immediate volatility. Világgazdaság reported that the leak revealed Finance Minister Varga Mihály’s team’s plans, which instantly strengthened the currency.
In Poland, Bankier.pl pointed out that despite the NBP holding rates, the market is split between economists who want hikes and those who do not, creating uncertainty about the next move. Strefa Biznesu reported that oil prices above $100/barrel failed to significantly weaken the zloty, which held steady awaiting further central bank cues.
Context & numbers
- Turkey: The policy rate stands at 37%. USD/TRY reached historic highs in early September, with local reports citing new record levels for the dollar.
- Hungary: The base rate was cut to 5.5% in August. Following the September leak, EUR/HUF moved from ~367 to ~362 HUF.
- Poland: NBP reference rates for September 3 showed EUR/PLN at 4.3211 PLN and USD/PLN at 3.7224 PLN. By September 9, EUR/PLN was reported around 4.31 PLN.
- Global Context: Markets are pricing in two ECB rate hikes in 2026, with the deposit rate expected to reach 3.1% by late 2027, influencing CEE currency valuations.
On the radar
- TCMB Decision (Today): The September 10 announcement at 14:00 is critical for TRY direction; markets are watching for any shift in the "tightening" rhetoric given the record USD/TRY levels.
- MNB Inflation Data & Decision: Hungary's inflation data released earlier this week influenced the MNB's stance; the official decision on whether to pause cuts or lower the inflation target is imminent.
- ECB Meeting: The ECB is expected to raise rates on Thursday, September 11, which could impact EUR/TRY and EUR/CEE pairs if the hike is more hawkish than anticipated.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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