Lira and CEE FX: Turkish Lira, Zloty, Forint — 2026-10-11
Turkish inflation data has dipped below 30%, sparking debate on central bank rate cuts, while the Polish zloty faces pressure from budget uncertainties and a strengthening dollar. In Hungary, the forint weakened against major currencies amid geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility.
Lira and CEE FX: Turkish Lira, Zloty, Forint — 2026-10-11
Turkey: CPI Surprise Opens Door for TCMB Rate Cut
Turkey’s September Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell below 30% year-on-year, marking a significant softening in monthly gains. According to Commerzbank analyst Tatha Ghose, this surprise decline creates scope for the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) to cut rates by 100 basis points in its upcoming policy decisions. This development is critical for the Turkish Lira (TRY), as it balances the need for monetary easing against persistent inflationary pressures and potential currency depreciation risks.
Poland: Zloty Under Pressure as USD Approaches 4 PLN
The Polish zloty (PLN) continues to face headwinds, with the US dollar (USD) approaching the 4 PLN threshold. Business Insider reports that uncertainty surrounding future interest rates in Poland, combined with budgetary concerns, is weighing heavily on the currency. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) maintained rates unchanged recently, but the market remains sensitive to global risk sentiment and domestic fiscal policy signals.
Hungary: Forint Weakens Amid Geopolitical Tensions
The Hungarian forint (HUF) weakened against major currencies, with EUR/HUF approaching dangerous levels near 367 and USD/HUF exceeding 328. Pénzcentrum notes that the forint’s decline was driven by unfavorable international sentiment and geopolitical risks, including tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) is expected to pause its cautious rate-cutting cycle, which may provide some stability if communicated effectively.
Global Context: Fed Rate Hike Impact on CEE FX
Recent comments from Polish media highlight that the zloty is at its weakest against the euro in two years, described by economists as a "knockout" following the first US Federal Reserve rate hike in three years. Capital outflows from emerging markets have accelerated, putting additional pressure on regional currencies like the PLN, HUF, and TRY.
Local view
Poland: Local financial outlet Forsal.pl emphasizes that the market’s focus is on NBP President Adam Glapiński’s post-decision conference. Analysts suggest that a dovish communication strategy could further weaken the zloty, while hawkish signals might offer only moderate support. Comparic.pl reports that the zloty began to recover slightly on Friday, with USD/PLN retreating toward 3.90 PLN, indicating some stabilization after earlier volatility.
Hungary: Portfolio.hu highlights that the forint initially strengthened due to news of the Strait of Hormuz reopening and falling oil prices, but this gain was quickly reversed by broader market movements. Pénzcentrum warns that the forint is approaching "dangerous levels," with the dollar surging past 328 HUF, raising concerns about imported inflation.
Context & numbers
According to the European Central Bank (ECB) reference rates from October 8, 2026, key exchange rates were:
- EUR/USD: 1.1186
- EUR/HUF: 366.25
- EUR/CZK: 24.403
In Poland, the NBP data for October 8 showed EUR/PLN at approximately 4.3789, reflecting continued pressure on the zloty.
On the radar
- TCMB Meeting Date: The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s next Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) meeting is scheduled for October 22, 2026, where a rate decision will be announced at 14:00 local time.
- Goldman Sachs Outlook: Contrary to some market expectations, Goldman Sachs predicts the TCMB will remain cautious and not cut rates in October due to inflation risks and reserve losses.
- Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, remain a key driver of volatility for energy-importing CEE currencies like the HUF and TRY.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
Powered by
