Lira and CEE FX: Turkish Lira, Zloty, Forint — 2026-09-08

Top developments

Turkish Lira Hits Record High Ahead of CBRT Decision

On September 7, 2026, the USD/TRY exchange rate reached a new historical peak at market open, driven by persistent inflationary pressures and investor caution ahead of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s (CBRT) upcoming monetary policy decision. The CBRT is scheduled to announce its September interest rate decision on September 10, 2026, with markets closely watching for signals on whether the bank will maintain its 37% policy rate or initiate a cutting cycle. This volatility highlights the ongoing tension between domestic inflation expectations and the CBRT’s tight monetary stance.

1 sources

habergo.com.tr

habergo.com.tr

Forint Surges on Bloomberg Report of MNB Policy Pause

The Hungarian Forint experienced a significant appreciation of approximately 1.6% in early September following a Bloomberg report suggesting that the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) might halt its easing cycle and potentially lower its inflation target from 3% to 2.5%. The news caused the EUR/HUF pair to drop from the 366–367 range to around 362 HUF within hours. This sharp move reflects the market’s sensitivity to any perceived hawkish shift from the MNB, which had previously cut rates to 5.50% in August. Investors are now awaiting the official inflation data to confirm whether this "pause" narrative holds weight.

Polish Zloty Strengthens Amidst Global Risk Appetite

The Polish Zloty continued its upward trend against both the Euro and the US Dollar during the first week of September, supported by a combination of strong regional economic fundamentals and inflows of EU funds. As of September 8, 2026, the NBP reported a slight weakening of the Zloty compared to the previous day, but the currency remains robust relative to its August levels. ING analysts note that sustainable GDP outperformance and expected EU fund disbursements justify lower EUR/PLN levels, keeping the Zloty one of the strongest performers in Central Europe.

Local view

In Turkey, local media outlets like Habergo and Internethaber are focusing heavily on the "historic peak" of the dollar and the anticipation surrounding the TCMB's September 10 announcement, with investors questioning if the current 37% rate is sufficient to curb inflation without triggering further currency depreciation.

In Hungary, Portfolio.hu and Világgazdaság are analyzing the "leak" from the MNB, describing it as a critical moment that reversed the Forint's downtrend. Local stakeholders are debating whether the MNB's potential shift to a 2.5% inflation target is credible or merely market speculation, with many urging caution until official data is released.

Context & numbers

• USD/TRY: Hit a new historical record on September 7, 2026. The CBRT policy rate remains at 37%.
• EUR/HUF: Moved from ~366–367 HUF to ~362 HUF following MNB leak reports. The MNB base rate is currently 5.50%.
• EUR/PLN: Stagnated around 4.31–4.33 PLN in early September, reflecting stability despite global volatility.
• Policy Rates: TCMB at 37%; MNB at 5.50% (after August cut).

On the radar

• TCMB Rate Decision: The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye will announce its September interest rate decision on September 10, 2026. Markets are watching for any deviation from the 37% hold.
• Hungarian Inflation Data: Key inflation figures for Hungary are expected shortly, which will either validate or refute the MNB "policy pause" rumors that drove the Forint's recent surge.
• Fed Policy: Global FX markets remain sensitive to US Federal Reserve signals, with strong non-farm payrolls data influencing risk appetite for emerging market currencies like TRY, PLN, and HUF.