Lira and CEE FX: Turkish Lira, Zloty, Forint — 2026-09-11

Top developments

CBRT Holds Policy Rate at 37% Amid Geopolitical Risks

On September 10, 2026, the CBRT announced it would keep its one-week repo rate at 37%, marking the fifth consecutive hold. The bank cited the inflationary impact of the ongoing Iran war and indicated that recent data showed underlying inflation trends remained stubbornly high. This decision aligns with ING’s forecast that the effective funding rate has normalized to the policy rate, suggesting any cuts are likely reserved for Q4 2026. For the TRY, this maintains a high carry appeal but limits immediate appreciation potential as real rates remain high.

NBP Keeps Rates Unchanged; Market Eyes ECB Divergence

The Polish Monetary Policy Council (RPP) decided on September 9, 2026, to leave NBP interest rates unchanged, defying some market calls for hikes. Despite oil prices hovering near $100/barrel, the zloty remained resilient, supported by the prospect of an upcoming ECB rate hike which could widen the interest rate differential in Poland's favor. Local media noted that the NBP is avoiding tightening despite inflation concerns, betting on external disinflationary forces.

HUF Volatility After Bloomberg Report on MNB Easing Pause

The Hungarian forint experienced significant swings this week following a Bloomberg report that the MNB might pause its rate-cutting cycle and lower its inflation target from 3% to 2.5% in September. The report initially caused the EUR/HUF to drop sharply from ~367 to ~362, but the currency partially retraced these gains as traders awaited official confirmation. This speculation highlights the sensitivity of the HUF to central bank communication, with local analysts warning of further volatility ahead of the MNB’s next decision.

Zloty Strengthens Against Dollar on Fed Cut Expectations

The Polish zloty appreciated against the US dollar, with USD/PLN trading around 3.71 on September 10, 2026. The move was driven by global dollar weakness as markets priced in higher probabilities of Federal Reserve rate cuts, contrasting with the ECB’s hawkish stance. This divergence benefits CEE currencies like the PLN and RON, which often trade in tandem with risk sentiment and USD weakness.

Local view

Turkish media outlets such as Cumhuriyet and Bigpara focused heavily on the CBRT’s decision to maintain rates at 37%, noting that this is the longest hold period in over eight months. Analysts cited in these reports argue that the "wait-and-see" approach is necessary to assess the lagged effects of previous hikes and external shocks. In Hungary, Index.hu reported on the leak regarding the MNB’s potential policy shift, describing it as a "critical moment" that triggered immediate market reactions. Polish outlet Bankier.pl highlighted the tension between the RPP’s decision to hold rates and market expectations for potential hikes, noting that the central bank is prioritizing growth stability over aggressive tightening.

Context & numbers

• TRY/USD: The Turkish Lira traded in a narrow range, with USD/TRY moving from 48.28 to 48.51 over the past week, a modest 0.48% depreciation.
• EUR/PLN: The euro was quoted at approximately 4.318 PLN as of September 10, 2026, showing stability against the zloty.
• EUR/HUF: The forint fluctuated between 362 and 365 per euro during the week, reflecting the impact of MNB-related rumors.
• Policy Rates:
  • Türkiye (CBRT): 37.0%
  • Poland (NBP): Unchanged (specific level not stated in snippet, but held steady)
  • Hungary (MNB): 5.5% (following August cut)

On the radar

• MNB September Decision: Watch for the official confirmation of whether the MNB will pause its easing cycle or cut rates again, following the Bloomberg leak.
• ECB Meeting: The European Central Bank’s next decision will be crucial for CEE currencies; a hike would strengthen the PLN and RON against the EUR.
• US Fed Policy: Any signals from the Fed regarding rate cuts will directly impact USD/PLN and USD/TRY flows.