Mexico, Colombia and Chile Rates: Banxico to BCCh — 2026-09-27
Banxico held its key rate at 6.50% for a third straight meeting on September 24, explicitly declining to follow the Fed's latest hike, sending the peso to its worst weekly loss since March. Colombia's BanRep was widely expected to hold at 12%, while Bank of America turned overweight Colombian external bonds. Chile's central bank is seen holding its TPM at 4.5% at its end-of-month meeting, per its survey of traders.
Mexico, Colombia and Chile Rates: Banxico to BCCh — 2026-09-27
Top developments
Banxico holds at 6.50%, breaks from Fed
On September 24, Banxico's Board of Governors unanimously kept the policy rate at 6.50% — the third straight hold since the pause that followed a cutting cycle begun in April 2024. The communiqué stated that going forward the Board "considers it appropriate to maintain the rate at its current level." Notably, Banxico said it does not have to "react" to the US: "No tenemos que reaccionar a EU," pushing back against expectations it would follow the Fed's 3.75–4.00% hike with a hike of its own. The market reaction was sharp: the peso weakened sharply on September 24 and slid toward its worst weekly loss since March, closing at 17.6760 on Friday — roughly 5% weaker than early September — while the IPC slipped before rebounding 1.13% to 64,992 on Friday, ending a four-week losing streak.
Fed hike thins LatAm carry; regional currencies slide
One week after the Fed's hike to 3.75–4.00%, the dollar wave hit Latin America: Mexico's peso closed at 17.72 during the week, Colombia's peso slid to 3,287 and fell 2.43% in a single session, while Brazil's real hit 5.19. The peso was the region's worst performer on September 23, among the top three depreciating currencies against the dollar, as Banxico's "caution" on rates thinned carry appetite.
Colombia: BanRep hold expected at 12%, but BofA goes overweight TES-linked external debt
Of 22 institutions surveyed, 16 expect BanRep's junta to keep the policy rate at 12% this week. The backdrop: August inflation of 6.24% (vs 5.10% a year earlier) against a 3% target, and a survey lifting December inflation expectations toward 7%. Against that, Bank of America raised Colombia's external sovereign debt to overweight, citing a spending-led fiscal adjustment and a lower 3.1% primary deficit — a notable vote of confidence in TES-linked credit. BNP Paribas, however, sees inflation at 6% and rates at 12.50% by end-2026.
Chile: BCCh seen holding at 4.5% for two years
Chile's central bank's own survey of financial operators, released Thursday (September 24), shows traders expecting the TPM to stay at 4.5% at the end-of-month meeting and at that level for two years. Local press flagged that US rate hikes — with at least two more expected — will pressure the peso via the dollar and could add inflationary impulse, complicating the BCCh's pause. Chile's latest print showed inflation jumping to 4.1% year-on-year in August, double the market forecast.
Local view
El Financiero framed Banxico's decision as Mexico "distancing itself" from the Fed, quoting the bank's insistence that Mexican decisions depend on domestic inflation conditions, and noting the unanimous third consecutive hold. Proceso likewise emphasized that Banxico "froze" the rate and insisted Mexico does not have to follow the US. Milenio reported the dollar closing at 17.68 pesos on September 25. In Colombia, Semana previewed the BanRep decision as being taken amid inflation pressures, earthquake-related financing needs and political noise. Local newsletter Economex asked whether Mexico's cutting cycle is over, arguing oil above $100, rising global rates and peso depreciation block further cuts.
Context & numbers
- Banxico policy rate: 6.50%, unchanged for three meetings; unanimous vote on September 24.
- USD/MXN: 17.68 close on September 25 (Milenio); ~5% weaker than early September.
- IPC: fell 0.78% to 63,375.93 on September 21 (peso at 17.06 ahead of the decision); rebounded 1.13% to 64,992 on Friday, September 25.
- Colombia: policy rate 12%; August inflation 6.24% YoY; COP at 3,287 after a 2.43% slide.
- Chile: TPM 4.5%; August inflation 4.1% YoY (0.6% monthly); operators expect the hold to persist for two years.
- Fed funds: 3.75–4.00% after the latest hike.
On the radar
- BanRep's rate decision this week — 16 of 22 analysts expect a hold at 12%; watch the vote split and any guidance on earthquake-related financing needs.
- BCCh's end-of-month meeting — traders expect 4.5% unchanged, with the survey pointing to two years of stability.
- Banxico minutes from the September 24 decision, due on Banxico's regular publication calendar.
- Whether the peso stabilizes after its worst week since March — watch oil (above $100) and further US rate expectations as the key drivers flagged by Mexican analysts.
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