Mexico, Colombia and Chile Rates: Banxico to BCCh — 2026-09-12
Chile’s central bank held its benchmark rate at 4.5% despite a surprise jump in annual inflation to 4.1%, signaling a cautious stance amid weak local growth. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso stabilized near 16.97 per dollar as investors weighed US inflation data against Banxico’s continued pause at 6.50%. In Colombia, analysts debate whether the central bank will raise rates again or prioritize stability as inflation expectations remain elevated.
Mexico, Colombia and Chile Rates: Banxico to BCCh — 2026-09-12
Top developments
Chile Central Bank Holds Rate at 4.5% Despite Inflation Surprise
On September 8, 2026, Banco Central de Chile (BCCh) maintained its key interest rate at 4.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting, opting for caution as annual inflation spiked to 4.1% in August, double the market forecast. The decision was unanimous, reflecting a "wait-and-see" approach to balance weak domestic activity against external inflationary pressures from global commodity prices and geopolitical tensions. This move keeps the Chilean peso relatively stable but limits immediate relief for borrowers, with markets now focusing on derivative positions like USD/CLP swaps rather than direct rate changes.
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Mexican Peso Stabilizes Near 16.97 Amid US Inflation Watch
The Mexican peso closed at 16.9705 per dollar on September 11, 2026, showing slight appreciation as it resisted downward pressure from rising US bond yields and new tariff threats. Investors are closely monitoring US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which has caused the peso to hover near the psychological 17.00 level earlier in the week. Banxico remains on hold at 6.50%, with forecasts suggesting no cuts through 2027, keeping the carry trade attractive but increasingly competitive with fading rallies in Brazil and Colombia.
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Colombia’s COLCAP Rises as Peso Firms Near 3,099
Colombia’s main stock index, the COLCAP, gained 0.57% to 2,584.02 on September 11, 2026, while the Colombian peso strengthened to approximately 3,099 per dollar. The market is eyeing policy news from Banco de la República (BanRep), with analysts divided on whether the central bank will raise rates further to combat persistent inflation or hold steady to support growth. Concerns remain about the credibility of BanRep’s inflation target as cost of life indicators continue to rebound.
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Local view
- El Financiero reports that the Mexican peso is facing a "dangerous rebound" toward 17 pesos per dollar, driven by global risk aversion and specific US economic data releases.
- Bloomberg Línea highlights a split in Colombia’s financial community, noting that while technical indicators suggest further rate hikes are needed, political and stability concerns within the central bank board may prevent them.
- ADN Radio emphasizes that Chile’s central bank is prioritizing caution due to low local growth and external tensions, rather than reacting aggressively to the single-month inflation spike.
Context & numbers
- Mexico: Annual inflation for August 2026 was reported at 3.26%, slightly above target but stable. Banxico’s reference rate remains at 6.50%. Analysts project the USD/MXN exchange rate to average around 17.00 by year-end 2026.
- Chile: The BCCh cut its 2026 growth forecast significantly to 0.25-0.75% from 1.0-1.75%, expecting fixed investment to fall this year. The IPSA index fell 1.14% to 11,315.26 on September 8.
- Colombia: Annual inflation was last reported at 6.14% for June 2026, with expectations for 2026 inflation climbing to 6.6%. BanRep holds its rate at 12.00%.
On the radar
- US Fed Policy: Traders are watching upcoming US inflation data closely, as shifts in Fed expectations directly impact the attractiveness of Latin American carry trades.
- BanRep Decision: Speculation continues on whether Banco de la República will hike rates in its next meeting to anchor inflation expectations, which have drifted above target.
- Mexican Debt Maturities: Approximately $110 billion in debt matures by the end of 2026, creating potential supply pressure in the local bond market.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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