Mexico, Colombia and Chile Rates: Banxico to BCCh — 2026-09-14

Top developments

Chile Central Bank holds rate at 4.5% amid global uncertainty

On September 8, 2026, the Board of the Central Bank of Chile (BCCh) decided to maintain the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) at 4.5% by unanimous vote. The bank cited low local economic growth and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, as key reasons for maintaining a cautious stance. The BCCh noted that while inflation remains above target, the weakness in the economy might be more persistent than previously estimated, extending into 2027. This decision aligns with market expectations but underscores the dilemma between supporting growth and containing imported inflation pressures.

Mexican peso tests 17.00 level on tariff fears and US yields

The Mexican peso experienced significant pressure earlier in the week, approaching the psychological threshold of 17.00 per dollar on September 10 and 11. El Financiero reported that new threats of tariffs contributed to this depreciation, with the currency closing near 16.97 on September 11 after a slight recovery. Rising US Treasury yields also weighed on investor sentiment, as higher US rates reduce the relative attractiveness of the peso despite Banxico’s hold at 6.50%. Investors are closely watching for clarity on trade policy ahead of the upcoming USMCA review discussions.

Colombia’s COLCAP hits record then corrects; Inflation at 6.24%

Colombia’s COLCAP index reached a historic high of 2,565.37 points on September 8, driven by strong performance in key sectors despite a sticky inflation print. DANE reported annual inflation for August at 6.24%, slightly above expectations, keeping pressure on Banco de la República (BanRep) to remain hawkish. However, the index corrected by 1.41% on Friday, September 12, closing at 2,589.69, as oil price weakness anchored the session. The Colombian peso strengthened slightly against the dollar, with the TRM starting the week near 3,072.

Local view

Local media in Chile highlighted the central bank's "unanimous" decision as a signal of stability in an unstable environment. ADN Radio reported that the BCCh is prioritizing caution over immediate stimulus, noting that the "weakness of the economy" could be prolonged. In Mexico, El Financiero focused heavily on the "dangerous rebound" of the dollar, warning that the peso’s proximity to 17.00 creates anxiety among importers and consumers. Meanwhile, La Jornada pointed out that the rise in US bond yields is directly impacting investor mood in Mexico, creating headwinds for local debt markets.

Context & numbers

• Chile TPM: Held at 4.5% since December 2025; decision made on Sept 8, 2026.
• Mexico USD/MXN: Traded between 16.92 and 16.97 during the week of Sept 7–11; closed near 16.96 on Sept 14 pre-open data.
• Colombia COLCAP: Record high of 2,565.37 on Sept 8; closed at 2,589.69 on Sept 12 after weekly fluctuations.
• Colombia Inflation: August annual inflation at 6.24%; June was 6.14%.
• Chile IPSA: Closed at 11,220.10 on Sept 12, down 0.16% week-on-week trends mixed with lithium sector weakness.

On the radar

• US Federal Reserve Decision: The Fed’s rate decision later this week is the primary driver for LatAm currencies, with markets pricing in potential cuts or holds that will impact carry trade viability.
• Banxico Minutes: While no new rate decision occurred this week, investors are digesting the implications of Banxico’s previous pause at 6.50%, with Citi surveying economists who expect rates to hold through 2027.
• Chilean IPC Release: Following the BCCh decision, the INE’s release of detailed CPI components will be scrutinized to see if core inflation is decelerating enough to allow future cuts.