Mexico, Colombia and Chile Rates: Banxico to BCCh — 2026-09-13
Chile’s central bank held its key rate at 4.5% amid a sharp growth forecast cut, while Mexico’s peso faced volatility near the 17.00 level due to US inflation data and tariff fears. Colombia’s COLCAP index fell as oil weakness weighed on the market, with the peso strengthening slightly against the dollar.
Mexico, Colombia and Chile Rates: Banxico to BCCh — 2026-09-13
Top developments
Chile holds rate but slashes growth outlook
On September 8, the Banco Central de Chile (BCCh) unanimously decided to maintain its Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) at 4.5%, citing low local growth and geopolitical tensions. Simultaneously, the central bank significantly reduced its 2026 GDP growth forecast to a range of 0.25%-0.75%, down from the previous 1.0%-1.75%, and now expects fixed investment to contract this year. This hawkish pause despite weak growth highlights the bank's focus on anchoring inflation expectations amid global uncertainty.
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Mexican peso volatile near 17.00 level
The Mexican peso experienced significant fluctuations this week, approaching the psychological barrier of 17.00 per dollar on September 10 before appreciating slightly to 16.9705 by September 11. Market movements were driven by US Producer Price Index (PPI) data influencing Fed rate hike odds and renewed threats of tariffs. Analysts note that while the peso remains relatively firm compared to other EM currencies, it is sensitive to external fiscal and trade policy signals.
Colombia markets dip on oil weakness
Colombia’s main stock index, the MSCI Colcap, fell 1.41% on Friday, September 12, dragged down by weakness in the oil sector which anchors the local market. Despite the equity market decline, the Colombian peso strengthened slightly against the dollar, closing the week with a TRM of approximately 3,072.27. The divergence suggests that currency flows are being supported by different factors than the equity market, possibly including remittance flows or foreign investment in debt.
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Local view
Local media in Mexico highlighted the "Superpeso" narrative fading as the currency tested weaker levels, with El Financiero noting the "dangerous rebound" toward 17 pesos per dollar driven by external factors rather than domestic fundamentals. In Chile, outlets like ADN Radio and El Periodista emphasized the central bank's unanimous decision and the stark warning regarding economic weakness, framing the rate hold as a cautious stance against "greater than usual" macroeconomic uncertainty. El Economista in Mexico also reported on the ECB's recent rate hike, noting how global monetary tightening adds pressure to emerging market currencies like the peso.
Context & numbers
- Chile Key Rate: Held at 4.5% (since December 2025).
- Chile 2026 Growth Forecast: Cut to 0.25%-0.75% (from 1.0%-1.75%).
- Mexico USD/MXN: Closed near 16.97-17.00 range; weekly close approx 16.96.
- Colombia COLCAP: Down 1.41% on Friday, Sept 12.
- Colombia USD/COP: Approx 3,077 (spot) / 3,072.27 (TRM).
- Chile IPSA: Down 0.16% to 11,220.10.
- Mexico IPC: 63,815.90 (down 0.45% in latest snapshot).
On the radar
- Mexico Budget Package: Markets are awaiting the delivery of the 2027 Economic Package (Paquete Económico), with attention on growth projections and electronic payment initiatives.
- US Inflation Data: Recent PPI and CPI prints continue to drive Fed rate expectations, directly impacting the peso and regional carry trades.
- Colombia Budget Comments: The Governor of Banco de la República has commented on the revised draft National General Budget for 2027, signaling potential fiscal impacts on monetary policy.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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