Natural Gas and LNG: TTF, JKM, Henry Hub Daily — 2026-09-26

Top developments

TTF rebounds as Hormuz standoff persists

European and UK gas futures recovered on Thursday, with the Dutch TTF rising to €74.50/MWh as fading hopes for a quick diplomatic resolution in the US–Iran conflict revived risk premia, against the backdrop of a persistent storage deficit. The TTF front-month later traded higher still after a 4% session rise in Amsterdam, with a report noting the front month at €84.30 — although the exact level cited is inconsistent across reports

Goldman Sachs sees elevated European prices all winter

Goldman Sachs expects European gas prices to average €70/MWh in Q4 2026, having raised its earlier forecast. European prices have surged roughly 70% since July on disrupted Middle Eastern LNG supplies and slower-than-expected storage builds; the bank warns a faster recovery in LNG availability is needed to normalize prices

Asian LNG demand set to fall — but India and Bangladesh keep buying

Asian spot LNG prices near $26/MMBtu are deterring Chinese and South Asian buyers, with Kpler estimating China's LNG demand down 6.1 million tons year-on-year and regional demand falling 3%–10% in 2026. Yet India keeps securing spot cargoes for city gas and fertilizer sectors: BPCL issued a rare JKM-linked spot tender for a November cargo to Dahej, and Bangladesh — after a force majeure — received offers from Trafigura, TotalEnergies and BP, with Trafigura proposing 16 cargoes for November 2026–December 2027 at Platts JKM plus $0.05/MMBtu

Henry Hub summer weakness vs LNG feedgas strength

Henry Hub averaged $2.93/MMBtu over summer 2026, 6% below summer 2025, as record production, ample storage, and growing solar and wind output outweighed record July heat — even as LNG feedgas demand stayed robust and kept the hub near $2.9/MMBtu this week

1 sources

eia.gov

eia.gov

Qatar's North Field East start-up slips toward 2027

Construction on the $28.75 billion North Field East expansion — originally targeted for a 2026 start-up — now aims for 2027, compounding tight global LNG supply as Qatar's export volumes remain constrained. Any further delay supports TTF and JKM price floors through the winter

Local view

German media are focused on a historically weak storage position heading into winter. NDR's live tracker continues to update German storage levels and gas import data, while ms-aktuell reports German storage stands at only around 57% before the heating season, with supply considered stable but gas remaining expensive. Euronews notes Germany's storage is "as empty as never before" — partly due to the Hormuz blockade — while Italy is better prepared at over 80% full. Telepolis frames full storage as "utopian" despite more LNG, at 56% fill and TTF near €80/MWh. t-online highlights Europe's new structural dependence on LNG after the break with Russia, with Asian competition and geopolitical disruptions driving price pressure.

Context & numbers

• EU storage: 68.04% full (769.87 TWh) as of mid-September, well below five-year seasonal norms, against a relaxed 80% November 1 refill target
• US–Europe gap: with Europe around $26/MMBtu versus Henry Hub at ~$2.71–2.90, wholesale gas in Europe costs roughly 8–10 times the US price
• Asian spot LNG: ~$26/MMBtu, more than doubled since the conflict began; September Asian LNG arrivals seen at 20.09 million tons, the weakest September in eight years
• Asia's spot market has bifurcated: China arbitraging at 29% utilization while emerging buyers pay double long-term rates and switch to coal
• The EU maintains supplies are stable despite low storage and global LNG market pressure

On the radar

• Modcharming/Bangladesh tender outcome: Trafigura, TotalEnergies and BP bids to be weighed after force majeure — watch for award timing
• BPCL's JKM-linked November Dahej tender result — a signal of Indian willingness to pay spot premia
• More LNG cargoes diverting as supplies stay tight; Inpex has raised its stake in the Ichthys LNG export facility; watch Iran diplomacy over the Strait of Hormuz
• Goldman's warning that a faster LNG market recovery could pull prices down faster than its €70/MWh Q4 forecast implies