Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Bursa Malaysia CPO Daily — 2026-09-27
Bursa Malaysia crude palm oil futures slid more than 2% on Friday (Sep 25) to the lowest close since early August, capping a 4.59% weekly loss on swelling Malaysian stockpiles and India's duty cuts. New Delhi slashed basic import duties on crude palm, soy and sunflower oils from September 24, while Malaysia set its October CPO export duty reference price at RM4,452.66/tonne and Indonesia's B50 mandate debate intensified.
Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Bursa Malaysia CPO Daily — 2026-09-27
Top developments
Palm oil tumbles to 7-week low on stockpile fears
The benchmark December contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives slid 99 ringgit, or 2.07%, to 4,673 ringgit (USD 1,148.16) a metric tonne on Friday (Sep 25) — the lowest closing level since August 3 — bringing the weekly loss to 4.59%. Midday trade on Sep 25 had already shown a 2.05% drop to 4,674 ringgit, with investors worried peaking production and flagging demand will push inventories above 3.1 million tonnes by end-September. The move matters for Bursa sentiment as the market prices in ample reserves in the world's second-biggest grower.
India cuts import duties on palm, soyoil and sunflower from Sep 24
India's government announced late Wednesday (Sep 23) basic import duty cuts on crude and refined edible oils, effective September 24. Crude soyoil's basic duty was cut to zero per Hindi-language reports, with duties on crude palm and sunflower oils also reduced ahead of the festive season to keep retail prices in check. The cut weighs on the palm-soyoil spread calculus and short-term Indian buying patterns, though analysts note it can quickly lift near-term import interest.
Malaysia fixes October CPO export duty reference price at RM4,452.66/tonne
Malaysia's government set the October 2026 CPO reference value for export duty purposes at RM4,452.66 per tonne, reflecting elevated — though easing — average prices. This frames export competitiveness against Indonesia, whose September reference price was US$1,007.51/MT with an export levy of US$148/MT. Traders will watch how duty structures transmit into fob differentials between the two producers.
Indonesia's B50 mandate: enough CPO, but exports at risk
GAPKI said Indonesia's CPO production is sufficient to support the B50 biodiesel mandate, but warned exports could fall in 2027 as more feedstock is absorbed domestically, urging productivity gains to preserve both markets. Indonesian parliament members (DPR Commission VII) pressed the government to guarantee CPO supply for biodiesel while safeguarding industrial competitiveness. Smallholder group SPKS asked the government to review B50 implementation and include cooperatives in the biodiesel supply chain.
Local view
Indonesian media tracked the weakness closely: CNBC Indonesia reported CPO futures "crumbled" 2% on Sep 25 with Malaysian stocks breaching 3 million tonnes weighing on the market ("Harga CPO Ambruk 2%, Stok Malaysia Tembus 3 Juta Ton"). InfoSAWIT reported KPBN auction CPO prices fell on Wednesday, Sep 23, with Sumatran physical markets shadowing the Bursa decline.
Meanwhile, Malaysian outlets carried the MPOC's more bullish line: DagangNews reported (Sep 22) MPOC expects CPO prices to stay above RM4,700/tonne through October and to year-end, supported by dry weather in Southeast Asia.
Bernama cited analysts forecasting profit-taking next week with prices seen at RM4,400–RM4,500 per tonne.
Context & numbers
- Benchmark December futures: RM4,673/tonne close Sep 25, down 2.07% on the day and 4.59% on the week — lowest since August 3.
- Earlier in the week, palm traded near MYR 4,790/tonne after a four-day losing streak snapped on firmer Dalian oils and India's duty cut.
- Indonesian September CPO reference price: US$1,007.51/MT; export levy US$148/MT.
- Physical market (Sep 21): Indonesian-origin crude palm cif Rotterdam at US$1,578/tonne (as of Sep 18); Malaysian-origin RBD olein fob at US$1,237.50/tonne.
- MPOC projects Malaysian palm exports stable around 16 million tonnes in 2027.
On the radar
- MPOC's dry-weather price scenario: whether CPO holds above RM4,700/tonne in October despite the current slide.
- End-September Malaysian inventories — whether stocks top the projected 3.1 million tonnes, a key bearish trigger for December futures.
- Flow-through of India's Sep 24 duty cut into festive-season import volumes, and any q4 adjustment of Indonesia's reference price and levy for October.
- SPKS's push for a B50 implementation review — a rumored (not confirmed) policy re-evaluation worth monitoring.
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