Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Bursa Malaysia CPO Daily — 2026-10-03
Malaysian crude palm oil futures hit a 13-week low this week, sliding below 4,530 ringgit/ton as weak export data and rising Malaysian inventories pressured markets. Indonesia's October reference price rose 3.44% to $1,042.15/MT with export levy set at $178/ton, while India's edible oil import duty cuts in late September continue to support demand expectations despite global headwinds.
Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Bursa Malaysia CPO Daily — 2026-10-03
Top developments
Malaysian CPO Hits 13-Week Low on Export Weakness and Inventory Fears
The December CPO contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell to 4,528 ringgit/ton on October 1–2, marking a 13-week low and the steepest weekly decline in recent sessions. The contract has lost 26–57 ringgit in recent trades, or 0.57–1.24% per session. Weak September export estimates and rising Malaysian physical stocks have been the primary drivers, with the market now facing a second consecutive week of losses as production continues to outpace demand. This price weakness signals deepening oversupply concerns in the world's second-largest palm oil producer.
Indonesia Raises October CPO Reference Price 3.44% to $1,042.15/MT; Export Levy Set at $178/ton
Indonesia's Ministry of Trade (Kemendag) set the October 2026 crude palm oil reference price at $1,042.15 per metric ton, up 3.44% from September. The corresponding export levy (bea keluar) has been fixed at $178 per ton, used to calculate the export tax component and support the Plantation Fund (BPDP) biodiesel mandate. This reference price framework determines mandatory levies on all CPO shipments and influences the B40/B50 biodiesel blending programs.
Full B50 Biodiesel Implementation Begins October 1; Indonesia Eyes B60 in 2027
Effective October 1, 2026, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) fully implemented the B50 biodiesel mandate nationwide, making Indonesia the world's first nation to operate at this blend level. This policy anchors domestic palm oil demand and underpins the export levy system tied to CPO prices. The government has signaled plans to advance toward B60 biodiesel by 2027, further locking in domestic absorption of CPO production and supporting the reference-price-linked export control framework.
India's September Edible Oil Import Duty Cuts Expected to Sustain Palm Oil Demand
On September 24, India cut customs duties on crude soybean, palm, and sunflower oils ahead of the festive season. The basic import duty on crude soybean oil fell from 10% to 0%, while crude palm and crude sunflower oil saw reductions, lowering the total landed cost of imports. Analysts expect India—the world's largest vegetable oil importer—to maintain steady or elevated palm oil purchases in the 2026–27 season despite lower duties supporting competition from soyoil and sunflower oil, potentially offsetting some of the Bursa Malaysia weakness.
CPO Weakness Spreads: Soyoil and Dalian Rivals Also Pressuring Prices
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soyoil prices fell 0.59% during the week, mirroring Dalian soybean oil weakness, which pulled Malaysian CPO lower in sympathy trades. Weaker rival oil complexes have amplified the selloff, creating a synchronized decline across all major vegetable oil futures. Soyoil-CPO spread dynamics now favor soybeans on oversupply and demand rotation, limiting CPO upside even if Malaysian stocks stabilize.
Local view
InfoSAWIT Sumatera (October 3) reported that CPO prices via PT Kharisma Pemasaran Bersama Nusantara (KPBN) fell in early October, with the market shadowed by global pressure and softer Bursa Malaysia futures. Indonesian plantation operators and traders cited slowing export momentum and margin compression on forward sales.
GAPKI (Indonesia's Palm Oil Association) closing data for September 29 showed Jakarta Futures Exchange (JFX) OLE trading at IDR 18,715/kg (Sept 29), while KPB Nusantara physical CPO (delivered Dmi/Blw/Ktj) settled at IDR 15,075/kg, reflecting the slide in derivatives-driven pricing.
Context & numbers
- Bursa Malaysia December CPO contract: 4,528–4,553 ringgit/ton (Oct 1–2), down from ~4,780 ringgit/ton on Sept 24; 13-week low and ~5.3% loss since month-end September
- Indonesia October CPO reference price: $1,042.15/MT (+3.44% MoM); Export levy: $178/ton
- Indonesia B50 biodiesel: Full implementation effective October 1, 2026; B60 target: 2027
- India import duty cuts (Sept 24): Crude soybean 10%→0%; crude palm and sunflower reduced; target: support 2026–27 import volumes
- CBOT soyoil: Down 0.59% week-on-week; Dalian soybean oil: Weaker, driving CPO spread compression
- Physical CPO (Indonesia KPBN): IDR 15,075/kg (Sept 29); Jakarta Futures (OLE): IDR 18,715/kg
On the radar
- MPOB September data: Expected release mid-October; watch for August stocks and export revisions—persistent inventory builds could extend the selling pressure.
- Soyoil/CPO spread: Monitor CBOT crush margins; if soyoil stabilizes above current levels, CPO could find support from rotational demand.
- Indian festival-season demand: Diwali window (late October–early November) typically lifts vegetable oil purchases; watch import flows and pricing signals by mid-October.
- Indonesian export shipments (Oct 1–10): Early month volume data will signal if the B50 mandate and lower reference price are yet translating to firm demand, or if global weakness overrides policy support.
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