Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Bursa Malaysia CPO Daily — 2026-09-15
Bursa Malaysia crude palm oil futures rebounded on September 15, rising 0.95% to RM4,896 per tonne, driven by stronger crude oil prices and a stabilization after hitting a two-week low. This recovery follows the release of MPOB data showing August stocks rose 7.48% to 2.82 million tonnes, while exports fell 7.50%, highlighting a supply-demand imbalance. Meanwhile, Indonesia maintained its export levy at US$148/tonne for September, and Indian edible oil imports surged, with soybean oil imports hitting a record high in August.
Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Bursa Malaysia CPO Daily — 2026-09-15
Top developments
CPO Futures Rebound on Crude Oil Strength
On September 15, 2026, the benchmark November contract for crude palm oil on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose by RM46 (0.95%) to close at RM4,896 per tonne. This marked the second consecutive session of gains, reversing the downward trend seen earlier in the week when prices hit a two-week low. The rally was primarily supported by climbing global crude oil prices, which enhance the attractiveness of biodiesel feedstocks, alongside a slight easing of profit-taking pressures that had weighed on the market previously.
MPOB Data Confirms Supply Glut with Rising Stocks and Falling Exports
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reported on September 10 that August 2026 closing stocks increased by 7.48% month-on-month to 2.82 million metric tons, reaching an eight-month high. This accumulation was driven by a 2.52% rise in production to 1.04 million tonnes, while exports contracted by 7.50% to 1.29 million tonnes due to weak festival demand from India. The widening gap between production and exports has intensified bearish sentiment, creating significant overhead pressure on CPO futures despite recent technical rebounds.
Indonesia Maintains Export Levy Amid Pricing Battles
Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade set the reference price for CPO at US$1,007.51 per metric ton for September 2026, resulting in an export duty (Bea Keluar) of US$148 per tonne. This levy remains unchanged from previous months despite fluctuations in global prices, as the government aims to stabilize domestic supply for its B40 biodiesel program and manage export revenues. The Indonesian market is also grappling with competition from Malaysia, with local media noting that Indonesia is actively challenging Malaysia’s dominance in palm oil pricing mechanisms through new trade exchange initiatives.
India’s Edible Oil Imports Surge, Shifting Demand Away from Palm
Indian imports of edible oils reached record levels in August 2026, with soybean oil imports hitting a record 6.20 lakh tonnes driven by pre-festival stockpiling. While palm oil imports also rose to a six-month peak, the surge in soybean oil shipments indicates a shift in buyer preference towards cheaper alternatives, putting pressure on palm oil market share in the world’s largest vegetable oil importer. This demand shift complicates the outlook for Malaysian and Indonesian exporters who rely heavily on Indian volume.
Local view
Malaysian Media Focus on Inventory Pressure Local Malay-language outlets such as DagangNews and InfoSAWIT have highlighted the stark contrast between rising production and falling exports, describing it as a "pressure point" for the local market. DagangNews reported that the 7.48% inventory jump is the primary driver of price weakness, noting that the market is struggling to absorb the surplus amid softening global demand.
Indonesian Stakeholders Watch Levy Stability In Indonesia, Insider Indonesia and InfoSAWIT emphasized that the steady US$148/tonne export levy provides predictability for exporters but may limit competitiveness if global prices dip further. Stakeholders are closely monitoring the Ministry of Trade’s reference price adjustments, which directly impact the profitability of CPO shipments versus domestic biodiesel consumption.
Context & numbers
- CPO Futures Price: RM4,896/tonne (Nov contract, Sept 15, 2026)
- MPOB August Stocks: 2.82 million tonnes (+7.48% MoM)
- MPOB August Exports: 1.29 million tonnes (-7.50% MoM)
- MPOB August Production: 1.04 million tonnes (+2.52% MoM)
- Indonesia CPO Reference Price: US$1,007.51/tonne (Sept 2026)
- Indonesia Export Duty: US$148/tonne (Sept 2026)
- India Soybean Oil Imports (Aug): Record ~620,000 tonnes
On the radar
- Upcoming MPOB Data: Traders are awaiting the next set of export estimates from cargo surveyors (AmSpec Agri and ITS) later this week to gauge if the rebound in CPO prices correlates with actual shipment volumes.
- Indian Festival Demand: With Diwali approaching in late October, watch for potential late-season buying from Indian refiners which could tighten near-term palm oil supplies despite current oversupply.
- Crude Oil Volatility: Given the strong correlation between Brent crude and CPO biodiesel demand, any geopolitical shifts affecting oil prices will likely cause immediate volatility in Bursa Malaysia palm futures.
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