Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Bursa Malaysia CPO Daily — 2026-09-30
Malaysian palm oil futures hit a 10-week low on Tuesday, pressured by weaker Dalian vegetable oils and rising inventory concerns, closing at 4,626 ringgit/tonne. Weak export data and expectations of expanding Malaysian stockpiles have driven prices down nearly 5% over the past week, while Indian import duty cuts on competing oils add further headwinds to the market.
Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Bursa Malaysia CPO Daily — 2026-09-30
Top developments
Malaysian CPO futures slide to 10-week closing low
The December futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives fell 0.81% to 4,626 ringgit/tonne (approximately $1,135/tonne) on Tuesday (September 30), marking the lowest closing level in 10 weeks. The market has extended losses from last week's 4.61% decline, driven by weaker performance in rival vegetable oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges and expectations that Malaysian palm oil inventories will rise by month-end.
Consecutive losses on weak export data and Dalian weakness
Malaysian palm oil futures dropped for a second consecutive session on Monday (September 29) and Tuesday, tracking weakness in soybean and sunflower oils across the Chicago and Dalian exchanges. The December contract fell 0.19% to 4,663 ringgit/tonne on Monday, extending downward pressure as exporters face demand headwinds heading into October. A softer ringgit and bounce in crude oil prices have provided only modest support to cap further losses.
India's import duty cuts add competitive pressure
On September 24, India cut basic import duties on crude and refined soybean, palm, and sunflower oils from 10% to 5%, effective immediately, as part of efforts to lower edible oil prices during the festive season. This duty reduction on competing oils increases price competition for Malaysian palm in key regional markets and has contributed to broader pressure on palm spreads relative to soyoil and sunflower oil.
Malaysian inventory pressure and export weakness
Malaysia's palm oil inventories are projected to reach approximately 3.1 million tonnes by end-September 2026, up from 2.82 million tonnes in August, amid rising production and weaker exports. Exports fell 7.5% month-on-month to 1.29 million tonnes in August, signaling subdued demand despite higher global production. Rising stocks relative to declining shipments have become a key bearish catalyst for prices.
Local view
Indonesian media reported continued weakness in CPO pricing tied to Malaysian market deterioration. InfoSAWIT (September 29) noted that prices fell to an 8-week low on September 29, with Crude Palm Oil (CPO) hitting 4,626 ringgit/tonne amid expectations of rising Malaysian stockpiles and weakness in Dalian vegetable oil futures. Indonesian physical CPO pricing at KPBN (Kharisma Pemasaran Bersama Nusantara) declined to Rp 15,515/kg on September 23, tracking the broader weakness in Bursa Malaysia futures.
Indonesian stakeholders have also flagged CPO supply concerns amid rising B50 biodiesel demand. On September 25, Indonesian palm farmers' union SPKS called for government evaluation of the B50 biodiesel program and greater involvement of cooperatives in the supply chain to ensure adequate CPO availability.
Context & numbers
Price & volume (as of Sept 29–30, 2026):
- December CPO futures: 4,626 ringgit/tonne (≈ $1,135/tonne) — 10-week low
- Weekly decline: −4.61% (last week)
- Current decline from Sept 23: −0.81% on Sept 30 alone
- August Malaysian stockpiles: 2.82 million tonnes (+7.48% m-o-m)
- August Malaysian exports: 1.29 million tonnes (−7.50% m-o-m)
- September 23 Indonesian CPO (KPBN physical): Rp 15,515/kg
Indonesia reference price & export levy (September 2026):
- Harga Referensi (HR) CPO: US$1,007.51/MT (set for full September period)
- Bea Keluar (export duty): US$148/MT
- Pungutan Ekspor (export levy): 12.5%
Malaysia export reference (October 2026):
- CPO reference value: RM 4,452.66/tonne
- Export duty: 10% (as set by Malaysian government)
India's edible oil import duty changes (effective September 24, 2026):
- Crude soybean oil: 10% → 5%
- Refined soybean oil: 10% → 5%
- Crude palm oil: 10% → 5%
- Refined palm oil: 10% → 5%
- Sunflower oil: 10% → 5%
On the radar
- October MPOB data (due October 10): Malaysian palm oil stocks and production figures for September will be closely watched; market expects continued inventory pressure and weak export numbers to persist.
- El Niño supply risk into 2027: Indonesian producers are now testing whether shorter-than-usual wet seasons from November onwards will constrain output enough to support a price recovery, even as near-term stocks remain ample.
- B50 biodiesel policy tension: Ongoing debate between Indonesian smallholder farmers and the government over supply adequacy for B50 mandates could influence CPO demand domestically and affect export availability.
- Soyoil/sunflower spread: With India's duty cuts now in effect, soybean and sunflower oils are more competitive on price; watch for further palm-to-soy switching in importing countries over the next 2–3 weeks.
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