Southeast Asia Rates: BI, BSP, BoT, BNM and SBV — 2026-09-24

Top developments

Bank Indonesia holds at 5.75%, leans on intervention over rates

On September 23, Bank Indonesia kept the seven-day reverse repo rate at 5.75% for a third consecutive meeting, alongside a 4.75% deposit facility and 6.50% lending facility rate. Governor Destry Damayanti's committee chose FX-market tools over rate changes, citing rupiah stability as the priority amid higher oil prices and elevated US yields

BI also trimmed hedging premiums by up to 30% to attract foreign inflows and deepen FX markets — a notable shift from relying on the benchmark rate to support the currency

BI intervenes in FX and bond markets as rupiah pressure builds

Bank Indonesia said on September 21 it will intervene using offshore and domestic non-deliverable forwards, spot FX, and secondary-market bond purchases to keep the forex market functioning smoothly. On September 24, the bank reiterated stabilization measures in response to a global bond sell-off

BI and HKMA advance cross-border QR payments cooperation

On September 24, BI Governor Destry Damayanti and HKMA Chief Executive Eddie Yue signed an Indonesia–Hong Kong QR payments linkage, deepening financial-hub connectivity alongside BI's currency stabilization agenda

Baht under persistent carry pressure; BoT defends 1.00% rate

The baht has weakened 5.7% year to date, pressured by a roughly 300bps Thai–US rate differential, per Investing.com Thailand. The Bank of Thailand, which last held its policy rate at 1.00% unanimously in August, maintained that view in recent weekly commentary, saying the rate is appropriate for a low and uneven recovery and that rate differentials are not driving capital outflows

ADB September outlook: growth up, prices up, unevenly

ADB's September update, published September 23, revisions underpin this week's ASEAN Macro Monitor, which frames regional growth and inflation both edging higher but unevenly across the six major Southeast Asian economies — a backdrop complicating central banks' easing or tightening calculus

Local view

Indonesian outlets emphasized the pivot away from rate policy: Bisnis Indonesia reported that rupiah stability was the stated priority and that BI is "monitoring opportunities for rate cuts" even as it holds. Kompas noted BI retains room to hike later in 2026 if external and domestic pressures intensify — "monetary policy space is narrowing". Media Indonesia highlighted US 10-year Treasury yields breaching 5.11% — the highest since 2007 — driving rupiah pressure and capital outflows, with BI preparing intervention and pro-market operations. In Thailand, The Standard reported BOT officials defending the 1.00% policy rate as suitable for the economy even as global central banks turn to rate hikes. Vietnamese commentary (Châu Xuân Nguyễn blog) argues US policy is pressuring Vietnam's rate corridor and exchange rate, with domestic buffers providing the shield

Context & numbers

• Policy rates: Indonesia 5.75% (deposit facility 4.75%, lending 6.50%); Thailand 1.00%
• US 10-year Treasury yield above 5.11%, highest since 2007, driving outflows from Asian currencies
• Fed hiked 25bps to 3.75–4.00% on September 16–17; baht traded around 33.29/USD post-FOMC
• Baht down 5.7% YTD; Thai–US rate gap ~300bps
• IHSG rose 0.64% to 6,317 in the first session of September 23 awaiting the BI rate decision

On the radar

• Vietnam: UOB forecasts USD/VND at 26,200 in Q4/2026, easing to 25,900 by Q3/2027, assuming Fed tightness persists
• Vietnam is weighing a capital/tax-package item of nearly VND 345 trillion in exemptions, reductions and deferrals to support growth
• Vietnam planning an USD-denominated bond issuance as a new fiscal option
• Thailand: US 10-year yield approaching 5% flagged by Bangkok Biz News columnists as a key 4Q2026 market risk with implications for baht and regional bond flows