Southeast Asia Rates: BI, BSP, BoT, BNM and SBV — 2026-10-31
Indonesia's 10-year bond yield surged to a four-year high of 7.707% as the rupiah weakened, prompting Bank Indonesia to signal potential intervention. Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand held rates at 1.00% to support a sluggish economy, and Vietnam’s central bank reversed its stance to inject over 28 trillion VND into the market to manage liquidity pressures.
Southeast Asia Rates: BI, BSP, BoT, BNM and SBV — 2026-10-31
Top developments
Indonesia: Yields Spike and Rupiah Weakens
Indonesia’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to 7.707%, the highest level since mid-May 2020, driven by elevated oil prices and the MSCI’s threat to downgrade its stock market status. The rupiah depreciated by 8.03% year-to-date through October 29, making it the weakest currency in Asia. In response to volatility, Bank Indonesia signaled action, with the USD/IDR pair retreating from a five-month peak of 18,223 to trade around 18,127.
Thailand: Bank of Thailand Holds Rates at 1.00%
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Thailand unanimously decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.00% on October 28, 2026. The decision aims to support an economy that is growing below its potential and is heavily concentrated in specific sectors. Despite the hold, the MPC warned that maintaining low rates for too long could pose risks to financial stability, particularly with inflation risks rising due to expensive fuel.
Vietnam: SBV Injects Liquidity After Tight Conditions
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) shifted to net liquidity injection, pumping 28,161.7 billion VND through open market operations (OMO) during the week of October 26–30. This move follows a period where interbank rates spiked near 5% per annum. On October 30, the SBV net injected 16,068 billion VND, keeping overnight rates anchored at 3.7%.
Philippines: Bonds Vulnerable to Fed Policy
Philippine bonds have been identified as the most vulnerable in emerging Asia to a hawkish Federal Reserve stance. The peso remains among the region's weakest currencies, putting pressure on the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to consider further rate hikes.
Local view
Indonesian media reports that Bank Indonesia Governor Destry Damayanti stated that global investors are increasingly choosing short-term instruments, such as short-term government securities (SBN), to avoid volatility. Kompas.id reported that BI is buying SBN in the secondary market to inject liquidity and stabilize the market.
In Thailand, local analysts at SCB EIC expect the Bank of Thailand to maintain rates in the next meeting, citing the need to support economic growth. Thai media noted the baht traded narrowly between 33.68 and 33.76 per USD following the Fed's decision to hold rates at 3.75–4.00%.
Context & numbers
- Indonesia: 10-year SBN yield at 7.707% (highest since May 2020).
- Rupiah: Depreciated 8.03% YTD as of Oct 29.
- Thailand: Policy rate held at 1.00%; GDP forecast for 2026 revised up to 2.4% from 2.3%.
- Vietnam: SBV net injected 28,161.7 billion VND via OMO in the week ending Oct 30.
- Fed Policy: The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.75–4.00%, with two officials dissenting in favor of a hike.
On the radar
- Bank Indonesia: The central bank has announced phased reductions in rupiah reserve requirements effective November 1 and December 1, 2026, to boost lending.
- Thailand: The final MPC meeting of the year is scheduled for December 23, where analysts expect rates to remain unchanged.
- Vietnam: The National Assembly is currently in session, with SBV Governor Pham Duc An emphasizing flexible monetary policy to support SMEs and control interest rates.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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