Softs: Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Cotton Daily — 2026-09-25
Conab raised Brazil's 2026 coffee crop estimate to a record 67.6 million bags, cementing the supply glut narrative that has dragged ICE arabica to three-month lows. Cocoa slumped to 7.5-week lows on ample West African supply even as rains remain spotty in parts of Ivory Coast and Ghana, while StoneX halved its global sugar surplus projection on Brazilian harvest delays. Ivory Coast approved the creation of a coffee-cocoa research institute, a medium-term structural signal for the top cocoa producer.
Softs: Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Cotton Daily — 2026-09-25
Top developments
Conab raises Brazil coffee crop to record 67.6 million bags
Brazil's crop agency Conab lifted its 2026 coffee harvest forecast to 67.6 million bags — a record for the series and 4.5 million bags above the prior 2020 peak — driven by the arabica "on-year" in the biennial cycle and stronger productivity, with Minas Gerais accounting for 52.7% of output. Production is set to grow nearly 20% this year on both larger area and yields. Market reaction was muted — Globo Rural noted converging projections of a record crop "mexem pouco" (move little) in an already bearish market, but the confirmation weighs on ICE arabica settlements into 2027.
Arabica hits three-month low as cocoa slumps to 7.5-week lows
ICE arabica futures fell to a three-month low on Wednesday (Sept 23) as the improving crop outlook in Brazil and rising exports weighed on the market, with sugar and cocoa also lower. Cocoa had slumped to 7.5-week lows on Tuesday as the market struggled to absorb "more than ample" supplies. The joint soft-complex selloff pressures ICE settlement prices across coffee and cocoa, and signals weak merchant demand ahead of the new Ivorian main season.
StoneX cuts global sugar surplus to 1.45 million tonnes; rains slow Brazilian cane harvest
StoneX on Tuesday halved its projected global sugar surplus for the season ending in September to 1.45 million metric tons from 2.9 million, citing delays in the Brazilian harvest. Rain in Brazil has been slowing the sugarcane harvest, pushing October NY world sugar up for a second straight session on Tuesday (+1.31% to SBV26), though raw sugar later eased on the ICE. The reduced surplus tightens the global balance and adds short-term upside risk to ICE sugar settlements.
Ivory Coast creates coffee-cocoa research institute (I2C)
The Ivorian government, in its Council of Ministers on 23 September 2026, approved the creation of an Institut du café et du cacao (I2C) to strengthen research and improve productivity and climate resilience in the country's two flagship crops. For the world's top cocoa producer — which just launched its 2026-27 season with new traceability obligations — this is a structural, medium-term supply-support policy rather than an immediate price driver.
West African rains ease cocoa weather concerns
Recent rains have improved cocoa weather in West Africa and eased El Niño concerns, though the coverage remains spotty and parts of Ivory Coast and Ghana still need more moisture — keeping the main-crop arrivals outlook guarded.
Local view
- Brazil: Globo Rural reports the Conab record confirmed a bearish drift in Brazilian coffee with little price movement, while CampoTV's origin coverage stresses that rising Brazilian coffee exports and good prospects for the 2027 crop are pushing international prices down sharply. Muzambinho's daily coffee bulletin tracks ICE closes and physical markets in Minas Gerais.
- Vietnam: Central Highlands coffee prices bucked the global slide, adding 1,000 VND/kg on 25/9 to 92,200–93,000 VND/kg even as London robusta and NY arabica both fell; domestic traders cite low robusta stocks offsetting pressure from Brazil's record season and steady Vietnamese exports.
Context & numbers
- Brazil 2026 coffee crop: 67.6 million bags (record), +~20% year-over-year; Minas Gerais 52.7% of output
- Robusta fell 1.6% to USD 3,341/ton on Sept 21 amid rising ICE arabica stocks and strong Brazilian/Vietnamese exports
- StoneX global sugar surplus: cut to 1.45 million MT from 2.9 million MT
- ICO composite indicator (I-CIP) averaged 287.29 US cents/lb in August 2026 (context; monthly data)
- Cotton was higher this week on stressful weather and hopes for new demand, per the Price Group daily softs report
On the radar
- Weekly Brazilian coffee and cocoa export/arrival flows from Cecafé and the Ivorian regulator as the 2026-27 main crop ramps up
- Follow-through effect of StoneX's slashed sugar surplus on Q4 ICE sugar positioning
- Spotty-rain follow-up in cocoa belt of Ivory Coast/Ghana — whether rains generalize supports pod development or revives El Niño fears
- Vietnam robusta export pace versus low domestic stocks in Daklak/Dak Nong as a potential robusta floor
- Rumor watch: Vietnamese market commentary flags expectations of a "strong coffee price recovery soon" — treat as local sentiment, not confirmed direction
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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