Softs: Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Cotton Daily — 2026-09-13
Brazilian coffee exports hit a record high for August, yet ICE arabica futures hovered near 10-week lows due to harvest acceleration and favorable weather forecasts. Raw sugar retreated from a 16-month peak as supply concerns eased, while cotton saw consolidation ahead of USDA reports.
Softs: Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Cotton Daily — 2026-09-13
Top developments
Brazil Coffee Exports Break Records in August
Brazilian coffee exports reached a historic high for the month of August, totaling 4.155 million 60kg bags, according to Cecafé data reported by Reuters and Globo Rural. This volume represents a 31% increase compared to August 2025, with export revenue rising 19.8% year-on-year to US$ 1.331 billion. Despite this robust shipment performance, ICE arabica futures faced downward pressure, hitting a 10-week low earlier in the week as traders weighed the heavy supply flow against improving crop prospects. The record exports underscore the strength of Brazilian supply chains even as global prices adjust to a potentially larger 2026/27 crop.
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Raw Sugar Retreats from 16-Month Peak
Raw sugar futures on ICE fell off their recent 16-month peaks on Friday, though they remained on track for two consecutive weeks of gains. Earlier in the week, prices had been supported by tight supplies in India, the world's largest consumer, but profit-taking and improved supply outlooks triggered the correction. Brazilian sugar mills are continuing to balance sugar and ethanol production, with market participants monitoring upcoming UNICA data for further clues on the mix. The pullback suggests that the initial rally driven by Indian scarcity fears is cooling as global flows normalize.
Cotton Consolidates Ahead of USDA Reports
Cotton prices traded higher in consolidation mode, influenced partly by the release of private production estimates prior to the upcoming USDA supply and demand reports. Traders are positioning cautiously as they await official government data to confirm or adjust current supply expectations. The softening in coffee and sugar markets has also had a spillover effect on sentiment across the broader softs complex, keeping cotton movements relatively contained within a narrow range this week.
Local view
Vietnam: Domestic Prices Dip Amid New Crop Pressure
In Vietnam, domestic robusta prices in the Central Highlands (Tây Nguyên) fell by 500 VND/kg on September 13, settling between 94,700 and 95,300 VND/kg. Local media Thời báo Tài chính Việt Nam notes that this decline follows a period of stability at higher levels, driven by the arrival of new crop supplies and mixed global futures performance. Farmers are watching ICE robusta contracts closely, which showed volatility with London futures rising slightly earlier in the week before giving back gains.
Brazil: Weather Boosts Next Season Outlook
Brazilian agricultural outlet Globo Rural reports that recent rains have favored coffee flowering, raising expectations for the next harvest. This positive weather signal is a key factor weighing on current arabica prices, as traders anticipate a larger crop for 2027. Meanwhile, Divulgar Dinheiro highlights that the average price for arabica bags in September 2026 is R$1,722.53, representing a 23% drop compared to the same period last year, reflecting the end-of-season pressure.
Context & numbers
- ICE Arabica Futures: Hovering near 10-week lows, pressured by Brazil harvest progress and favorable weather.
- Brazil Coffee Exports: August total of 4.155 million bags, a monthly record; +31% YoY.
- Vietnam Robusta: Domestic price range of 94,700–95,300 VND/kg as of Sept 13.
- Cocoa Prices: Trading around $5,961 USD/T as of mid-September, down ~19.7% from a year ago but up 4.1% over the past month.
- Ivory Coast Cocoa Farmgate Price: Fixed at 1,200 FCFA/kg for the 2026-2027 main crop, unchanged from the previous campaign despite global volatility.
On the radar
- USDA Reports: Cotton and sugar traders await the next World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for updated global balances.
- Vietnam Harvest Progress: Watch for accelerating new crop arrivals in Vietnam, which could further pressure robusta spreads if export logistics remain tight.
- El Niño Concerns: The ICO noted that heightened El Niño concerns supported a mid-month rally in August; continued monitoring of weather patterns in Brazil and Asia remains critical for Q4 price direction.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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