Softs: Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Cotton Daily — 2026-10-08
Raw sugar futures on ICE hit a 19-month high before pulling back, driven by rainfall forecasts in Brazil and crop concerns in other producers. Meanwhile, coffee prices rallied earlier in the week on Brazilian Real strength and El Niño risks but faced pressure from record Brazilian exports in September. Cocoa markets remain volatile as El Niño threatens West African supplies, while Ivorian producers face a split between global price surges and fixed farm-gate prices.
Softs: Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Cotton Daily — 2026-10-08
Top developments
Sugar Futures Hit 19-Month High Then Retreat
Raw sugar futures on ICE reached a 19-month high on Tuesday, October 7, supported by forecasts for more rain in Brazil, which could delay the harvest and impact quality. However, prices turned lower on Wednesday, October 8, after scaling that peak, as the market digested the extent of the recent rally and adjusted to updated weather models. This volatility highlights the sensitivity of sugar settlements to short-term weather patterns in the top producer.
Brazil’s Coffee Exports Hit 20-Month High in September
Brazilian coffee exports in September reached their highest volume in 20 months, according to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat). The surge was driven by the arrival of the new harvest, which concluded after delays caused by atypical winter rains. While volumes increased, the average export price fell by 9.8%, limiting the growth in total revenue. This supply flood is a key factor pressuring international arabica prices despite recent rallies.
Coffee Prices Rally on Currency and Weather Risks
December arabica coffee (KCZ26) rose by 4.10% and November robusta (RMX26) by 1.98% earlier this week, marking a three-session rally. Arabica hit a 3.5-week high while robusta reached a 6-week high. The gains were attributed to strength in the Brazilian Real, which reduces incentive for Brazilian farmers to sell, and growing concerns over El Niño impacts on future crops.
Cocoa Faces El Niño Threat and Producer Price Disparities
Cocoa prices are climbing again as El Niño threatens West African supplies, with chocolate makers struggling to absorb higher costs. In Côte d'Ivoire, the farm-gate price remains fixed at 1,200 FCFA/kg for the main campaign, creating a significant gap with global market movements. This disparity is causing tension among producers and cooperatives who are seeking better terms amidst rising global prices.
Local view
In Vietnam, local robusta prices in the Central Highlands (Tây Nguyên) remained resilient, rising slightly to between 93,600 and 94,400 VND/kg on October 8, even as international futures softened. Local traders note that domestic demand and limited immediate supply are keeping floor prices firm despite global volatility.
In Côte d'Ivoire, regional delegates from the Coffee-Cacao Council are urging producers in Taabo to focus on quality and responsibility for the 2026-2027 campaign. Recent reports from Abengourou indicate an improvement in cocoa quality and commercialized volumes, suggesting that despite price caps, production discipline is being maintained.
Context & numbers
- ICE Settlements: December Arabica (KCZ26) gained +12.00 cents (+4.10%) during the mid-week rally; November Robusta (RMX26) gained +70 USD/ton (+1.98%).
- Brazil Exports: September 2026 coffee exports were the highest in 20 months, though average prices dropped 9.8%.
- Vietnam Prices: Robusta farm-gate prices in Central Highlands ranged from 93,600 to 94,400 VND/kg on Oct 8.
- Cocoa Farm-Gate: Côte d'Ivoire maintains a minimum guaranteed price of 1,200 FCFA/kg for cocoa for the 2026-2027 campaign.
On the radar
- Brazilian Weather: Continued monitoring of rainfall forecasts in Brazil’s Centro-Sul region, which will directly dictate sugar harvest pacing and quality.
- El Niño Impact: Market participants are assessing the severity of El Niño conditions for West African cocoa and Vietnamese robusta crops in the coming months.
- Indian Sugar Policy: Watch for further announcements from ISMA regarding sugar production estimates (currently ~275 LMT) and potential export policy adjustments.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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